Bitcoin breaks its sixth high in 2025 and buries the four-year pattern that marked its history

By Hannah Perez

Two separate analyzes from K33 and Arthur Hayes agree on one thing: Bitcoin has bid farewell to its four-year historical price pattern. Institutional adoption and other macro factors are changing things for Bitcoin, which this week secured its 6th price high so far in 2025.

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• Bitcoin’s 6th ATH in 2025 Buries Quadrennial Pattern: A New Era for Cryptocurrency.
• Bitcoin broke USD $126,000 at the beginning of the week, although it later fell dramatically.
• Institutional adoption and other macro factors are changing things for Bitcoin.
• Never before has Bitcoin been seen setting so many peaks in a row on the charts.
• Is $200,000 the next peak? For now, geopolitical events set the tone.

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Bitcoin (BTC) made history again this week by reaching a new all-time high (ATH) price above USD $126,000, marking at least the sixth break of this type so far this year, and completely forgetting about its four-year pattern.

Although it was followed by a dramatic price drop – marked by a historic liquidation event in the crypto market for more than USD $19 billion on Friday – the price milestone of Bitcoin consolidates an unprecedented rally so far in 2025, while reinforcing the theory that its traditional four-year cycle, driven by halving events, has come to an end.

Two recent analyses, one of K33 Research and another from entrepreneur and cryptocurrency community personality, Arthur Hayes, argue that structural factors such as growing institutional adoption and expansive monetary policies have invalidated historical patterns of Bitcoinopening the door this year to a bull market more sustained and less predictable.

Bitcoin has broken records at least 6 times this year

The rise of Bitcoin in 2025 it has been stratospheric. After experiencing multiple highs during 2024 – breaking the psychological threshold of USD $100,000 for the first time in December and differentiating itself from previous cycles in the recurrence of records – the cryptocurrency has established six ATHs that we can count this year.

In January, the largest cryptocurrency touched $109,350 on the charts, surpassing the 2024 peak of $103,332 and approaching $110,000 for the first time in its history. That peak was followed by the high of $111,000 in March, driven by a better regulatory outlook for cryptocurrencies and overall economic outlook in the US.

In May, Bitcoin A limit of $112,509 was secured and, in less than two months, it already confirmed a new threshold above $115,000, flirting with USD $120,000. The next peak, $124,457, came in August, amid multiple rises on the 11th, 13th, and 14th, and now October has sealed its most recent record: $126,198.

This sequence represents the first time in the history of Bitcoin that so many consecutive highs are recorded in a two-year period, far exceeding the rally from 2020-2021, where there were about four significant ATHs in total (one in 2020 and three in 2021), driven by early institutional adoption, post-pandemic stimuli and events such as the investment of tesla.

This cycle is different: goodbye to the four-year pattern

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a cyclical pattern linked to its halvings – the network’s scheduled events that halve the reward for mining blocks approximately every four years. These events, which act as a tangible reminder of the shortage of Bitcoinhas generated bullish moments followed by deep corrections, in the form of a pattern.

However, things seem to be changing for Bitcoin now that experts agree that “this time it’s really different“As researchers from K33 Research in a report this week. The central thesis of that report is the same as Hayes’: the end of the predictability of traditional four-year cycles in the Bitcoin (BTC); although each one has expressed different reasons why they consider this change to be taking place.

Institutional adoption is changing the dynamic

According to K33 Researchthe main disruptive factor is institutional adoption, which has transformed Bitcoin from a speculative niche instrument to an asset integrated into traditional finance. In its infirmity, K33 highlights that the maturity of the ecosystem, with the proliferation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Bitcoin and Ethereumand allocation limits such as the 4% set by Morgan Stanley in institutional portfolios, it has eliminated the predictability of past cycles.

“Institutional adoption has gone from a dream to a tangible reality“argues the team, pointing out that, despite signs of short-term overheating – such as an 8% weekly rally with low volatility –, the structural context favors sustained growth, potentially benefiting altcoins once external events such as the US government shutdown are resolved.

«The 4-year cycle is dead»

For his part, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a widely reputable voice in the crypto space, presents a complementary argument but focused on the global macroeconomic landscape.

In his essay titled “Long Live the King!”published and reviewed by the news outlet CoinDeskHayes categorically states that “BTC’s four-year cycle is dead” because historical bear markets (such as in 2014, 2018, and 2022) were not directly caused by the halvingsbut due to contractions in fiduciary liquidity.

In the current context, with expansionary monetary policies underway – such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, the revival of Abenomics in Japan and anti-deflationary measures in China – Hayes predicts a ““liquidity deluge” that will keep the bullish cycle alive. “A Bitcoin crash is off the table“he states, emphasizing that fiat money will be “cheaper and more abundant“, invalidating historical patterns and extending the rise of Bitcoin without the traditional cyclical declines.

Bitcoin claims a solid throne above USD $100k

Both perspectives ultimately conclude the same thing: the break of the four-year cycle is not a temporary anomaly, but the result of profound changes that reflect the maturation of the cryptocurrency market. While K33 highlights institutional integration as the anchor that provides stability, Hayes highlights monetary policies as the catalyst that injects continuous fuel.

These new and changing dynamics would explain why 2024-2025 have been so different in the price evolution of Bitcoineclipsing previous periods. For example, in 2013, the leading cryptocurrency recorded only two ATHs, but without continuity in adjacent years, and there are no other cases of multiple breakouts in consecutive years before 2020-2021.

At the time of going to press, BTC is around USD $112,000 after a resounding fall triggered by renewed fears of a trade war between the United States and China. With the price 11.4% lower from its last ATH, Bitcoin reflects a gain of close to 20% so far this year and 78.8% in the last 12 months.

Analysts warn that, although optimism prevails, risks such as volatility and the influence of geopolitical and macroeconomic events could continue to set the tone. However, with Bitcoin making USD $100,000 its new standard and an increasingly legitimate market, the message is clear: the king of cryptocurrencies has evolved, leaving behind its cyclical crown to claim a more lasting throne. Could USD $200,000 be its next peak as some experts predict?

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Article written with the help of AI, edited by DailyBitcoin

Image generated with an AI tool, under a free use license

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