Bitcoin could still surprise at Christmas – if the historical gain of Q4 is repeated in 2025
By Hannah Pérez
In the last 12 years, Bitcoin has increased on average 85% in the fourth quarter of the year. If the story is repeated, we could see BTC over USD $ 200,000 for Christmas, as Standard Chartered has predicted.
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- In the last 12 years, Bitcoin has increased on average 85% in the fourth quarter of the year.
- The average yield in the last four months of the year is 52%, according to data.
- If the story is repeated, Bitcoin could arise about USD $ 170,000 or even USD $ 200K for December.
- While analysts await a Christmas full of surprises, the immediate perspective is uncertain.
- BTC is around USD $ 112,000, just over 9% below its AT.
In the middle of a volatile market that pushes Bitcoin (BTC) about 10% below its historical maximum of USD $ 124,000, analysts are anticipating a 2025 closure full of gifts, although with cautious projections in the short term.
The historical data of Bitcoin They have shown a consistent pattern of robust profits during the fourth quarter (Q4), with an average yield of 85.42% and a median of 52.31% in the last 12 years, according to data compiled by Coinglass.
If this cycle is repeated, the largest and oldest cryptocurrency in the world could arise towards unpublished price levels, potentially between USD $ 170,000 and USD $ 200,000 before Christmas, offering a “gift“Unexpected investors.
The investigator and economist of Timothy Peterson networks stood out, in an analysis shared in X, which Bitcoin It has risen in most four -month periods prior to Christmas, with an average profit of 44%. “Exactly four months to Christmas. How is Bitcoin in this time? It rises 70% of the time. Average gain +44%“Peterson wrote.
Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How Does Bitcoin Fare During This Time?
UP 70% of the Time. Avenge Gain +44%.
However I Think Sub Years Do Not Have Market/Economic Conditions Comparable to 2025. I WOLD EXCLUDE 2018, 2022, 2020, AND 2017 AS UNCHARACTERISTETIC YEARS. pic.twitter.com/0llpetrilc
– Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 25, 2025
Applying this average to the current price, BTC could arise above a record height of USD $ 160,000 by the end of December since its current price of around USD $ 112,300. However, Peterson warns that not every year are comparable: excluding atypical periods such as 2017 (excessive optimism), 2018 and 2022 (deep bearish markets), and 2020 (influenced by the pandemic), the perspective is inclined towards a “Positive but less volatile performance” This year.
October: a historically bitcoin month
This optimism is anchored in the monthly performance history of Bitcoin Towards the end of the year. October, –nicknamed “uptober” by the community of cryptocurrency enthusiasts–has registered average gains of 21% since 2013, with only two negative closures in the last 12 years, according to Coinglass.
The month contrasts with September, traditionally bassist, where BTC usually loses about 4% of its value. Last year, for example, Bitcoin October 10.7% higher closed, followed by an explosive increase of 37% in Novemberstarring an amazing end of the year rally that promoted the price for the first time towards the six -digit dream record.
Analysts from institutions such as Standard Chartered and Bernstein They coincide in ambitious projections, predicting that BTC could climb to USD $ 200,000 or more before the closing of 2025, aligning with the historical data of the fourth quarter.
“The perspective for bitcoin between now and Christmas is positive, although less volatile“, Peterson summarized in his comparative analysis of the yields of Q4 throughout the upward cycles.
Short -term uncertain future: greater correction or increase?
However, not everything is holiday in the short term. Bitcoin He has been facing pressure since he broke a historical maximum (ATH) of $ 124,000 in mid -August, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US. UU., who have discouraged investors to pursue risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
In addition, a capital rotation towards Ethereum (ETH) has weakened the domain of BTC, which has decreased almost 5% in the last month to currently be 58%, according to data from TrainingView.
The whales of Bitcoin They have been migrating to ETH in the midst of an institutional appetite renewed by the second cryptocurrency, which contributed last week to the fact that Ethereum will reach a new ATH of USD $ 4,956. VETLE LUNDE, Chief of Research of K33described this rotation as “enormous“, Causing the ETH/BTC ratio to rise above 0.04 for the first time in 2025.
The team of K33 has warned in a report on immediate bassist risks: open interest (OI) in perpetual futures Bitcoin It has reached a maximum of two years in more than 310,000 BTC (USD $ 34,000 million), with annualized financing rates rising from 3% to 11%. This indicates an aggressive leverage in long positions, similar to the accumulations of past summers that ended in mass liquidations in August. “The risks of long Squeezes in the short term are high“Lunde warned.
Waiting for Christmas with Bitcoin gifts
The news media COINDESK He also highlighted short -term uncertainty in his daily newsletter on Wednesday, indicating that merchants are visualizing a potential resurgence as Bitcoin It is maintained above USD $ 110,000.
The average price of USD $ 108,800 to which recent investors bought Bitcoin, It serves as a support level. On the other hand, the data show that those who have Bitcoin For a short time they are selling to loss, something that is usually seen when the price is close to a minimum temporal level, shared that report. Meanwhile, in the options market, the level of “Maximum pain”From USD $ 116,000 indicates that there could be a movement up soon, he added COINDESK.
Trader Donny, in X, compared the current action with the 2017 upward cycle, suggesting that BTC is “anticipating“To the typical weakness of September:”The scale is different, but the result is the same. Much higher“Donny said, also noticing similarities with the activity of gold, an asset that Bitcoin He has followed historically.
With Bitcoin accumulating an approximate earnings of 19% in 2025 – in front of the annual historical average of 100% -, Q4 could be the catalyst for a festive closure, but only if the story is repeated in a context of rotations, leverage and uncertain macro events. Investors, for now, expect the “Christmas gift” with a mixture of hope and caution.
Article written with the help of AI, edited by Diariobitcoin
Image created with AI tool, under free use license
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