Bitcoin mining will use QC by 2046

For Dr. Joseph Kearney, researcher at the University of Kent, the United Kingdom, Bitcoin mining will be safe from quantum attacks under certain conditions, as explained in an X post on June 24. By 2046, «Mining infrastructure will probably be using quantum computing [a su favor]», He says.

With miners using quantum computers, will increase the difficulty of the mining processadjusting the goal of hash, “and the advantage of a single quantum attacker will be reduced,” says Kearney.

That perspective suggests that Bitcoin will not require urgent restructuring of its work proof mechanism (POW) to resist post-quantic threats, provided that the industry evolves with technology.

Dr. Joseph Kearney is a specialized “blockchain” technology and post-chanting computing. His work explores how advances in quantum computing could affect the security of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, a topic of which he has presented several articles since 2019.

These articles are published in Kearney’s public profile on the Google Scholar site, a Google platform that allows academics to validate their identity and publish studies, advances and works.

SHA-256 vulnerability and quantum defense

The SHA-256 algorithm, which ensures the bitcoin network to generate unique hash For each block, it is not immune to quantum advances. Although classic computers would take millions of years to reverse this process due to its unidirectional nature, a quantum computer could exploit the Grover algorithm to seek the right entrance.

This means that, theoretically, a malicious actor with a computer with Grover could quickly solve a critical volume of Pow problems and compromise the integrity of the network, facilitating a 51% attack if an actor will control sufficient computing power.

Kearney reviewed her previous evaluation on the quantum impact on Bitcoin, based on her 2022 report, prepared with other scientists, entitled “Quantum advantage on proof of work”(Quantum advantage in the work test), where he estimated that The first plausible quantum attack of 51% Against the SHA-256 algorithm it would occur around 2046.

Initially, this projection pointed out a significant risk, but its current reconsideration suggests that the threat does not require immediate reform of the Bitcoin Network.

That change arises from their new hypothesis: by 2046, Bitcoin miners would have adopted quantum computing in their hardware, which collectively increase the hash rate of the networkdynamically adjusting the difficulty in maintaining security.

In this way, the threat of that possible attack would be neutralized, instead of depending on structural changes in the network, although it will be necessary for massive and coordinated adoption.

The following Kearney chart illustrates the projection of the quantum hash rate, which would exceed the traditional hashrate rate by 2046:

However, he warned that cryptocurrency networks with lower hash rates should pay attention to the implications of the Grover algorithm, which optimizes the search for solutions in problems such as Pow, unlike Hash Collision attacks, which require a different approach.

The researcher is urgent for an anti -chnectic change for firms in Bitcoin

On October 22, 2024, Kearney, together with other researchers, published a study that adds urgency to the preparation of Bitcoin’s signatures against quantum threats:

“We calculate a lower limit not adjusted to the accumulated inactivity time required for the previous transition in 1827.96 hours, or 76.16 days. We also demonstrate that the transition needs to be completed fully before the availability of quantum devices that break ECDSA-256, to ensure continuous Bitcoin safety. The conclusion is that the update of Bitcoin to safe protocols in front of quantum Start as soon as possible to guarantee your continuous operations. ”

Joseph Kearney report of 2024.

This statement refers to the need to migrate all non -spent transactions (UTXO) to safe keys against quantum computers, a process that requires pausing the network to feed funds in Bitcoin.

The “lower limit of 76.16 days” represents the estimated minimum time if the network is dedicated exclusively to this task, without processing new transactions.

This calculation assumes an ideal scenario where all nodes update simultaneouslya logistics challenge that would require massive consensus between miners and developers before quantum devices capable of breaking ECDSA (digital signing of elliptical curve), the encryption system that protects private keys in Bitcoin.

Despite his announcement, Kearney did not specify any ideal anti -uctic method to protect the signatures of Bitcoin transactions.

Although mining could adapt to quantum computing by 2046, the protection of private keys, especially the old ones, demands immediate action to guarantee the continuity of the network, according to Kearney.