Bitcoin resists about USD 100,000 between whales, Trump, China and the Fed

During the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) again filled its investors with hope.

For May 2, The BTC price exceeded the USD 97,000, reaching —As as cryptootics reported – levels that have not been seen for more than 2 months.

Anyway, the digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto remains far from its historical maxim close to the USD 110,000, which arrived on January 20, the day of the presidential assumption of Donald Trump, in the United States.

In the following graph, provided by TrainingView, it is observed how the price of Bitcoin has moved since January 1, 2025:

Among the factors that supported this movement, the progress in commercial negotiations between the United States and China. Bilateral dialogue indications between both governments reduced tension by “tariff war” and offered positive signals for global markets.

Another relevant element has been the behavior of the great holders of BTC, known as “whales.” These key actors in the market returned to a profit situation, which reinforces the bullish panorama and general optimism in the market.

Also, the price has exceeded the 111 -day mobile average – between USD 93,000 and USD 97,000 -, which suggests a Consolidation stage with potential for upward break. However, overcoming the USD 98,000 is emerging as a key condition to enable a sustained rise towards new maximums.

To all this we must add that last week, The Bitcoin to cash ETFs had positive net capital flows, for more than USD 1.8 billion. Because these funds are backed by the underlying asset, such a movement in the market has collaborated with the Bitcoin price increase.

In the institutional sphere, Bitcoin accumulation continues by companies as Strategy (former Microstrategy). On May 2, Cryptonotics reported that Michael Saylor, CEO of the company, announced a new BTC purchase phase, anticipating a strong rebound in its price. This position reinforces institutional confidence in BTC, especially in an environment of global monetary expansion.

Cryptooticias reported that, During April, around a dozen companies around the world made purchases of BTC, which increased the demand for this financial asset.

A favorable macroeconomic environment

The recent BTC performance is closely linked to the macroeconomic context. So far from 2025, the increase in global liquidity has favored the assets considered “risk”, including BTC.

In addition, analysts anticipate that, if the negotiations between the USA and China conclude with a commercial agreement, Bitcoin could climb to USD 150,000 easilyan ambitious projection based on the growth of institutional investment and its positioning as a coverage to inflation.

In line with this vision, Hashdex declared that BTC represents a “modern alternative” to gold, with a perspective of appreciation in the medium term.

Expectations for this week: looks on the Fed

Beyond geopolitical noise, tariff war and trade negotiations between powers, The key event that monopolizes market attention this week is the next decision of the United States Federal Reserve (FED) on May 7 About its reference interest rate.

While no great surprises are expected at this meeting –The consensus anticipates that the Fed will maintain its monetary policy without changes-, investors are attentive to any signal that anticipates a possible turn in the short or medium term.

For Bitcoin, that nuance in the statement of the statement can make the difference between a pause and a new bullish wave.

Recall that BTC, although conceived as an alternative to the traditional financial system, does not operate in an isolated bubble. The fact that it is currently among the 10 most valuable financial assets in the world makes its behavior more and more linked to the global macroeconomic environment and, in particular, to the monetary policy decisions taken by the central banks.

The United States Federal Reserve has a leading role, not only because of the magnitude of the economy it regulates, but because the dollar remains the world reserve currency and its interest rate acts as a reference for global capital flows.

When the Fed keeps the high rates, the cost of money rises. This discourages indebtedness and reduces the liquidity available in the markets. In that environment, the assets considered “risk” – such as technological actions, cryptocurrencies and bitcoin – tend to lose attractiveness against more conservative instruments such as US Treasury bonds.

On the contrary, When the Fed lowers the rates or gives signs that it could do it in the short term, the panorama changes radically. Credit is lowered, flows to assets with greater potential for appreciation and grows appetite by non -traditional investments increase. In that context, Bitcoin is usually benefited as an alternative value reserve and as an asset with growth potential.

Immediately, The expectation is that the Fed keeps its reference rate unchanged in the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Fed’s position has been clear in recent months: maintaining an attitude of “Wait and see” while the impact of recent changes to American commercial policy is evaluated.

Since April, the new tariffs promoted by President Donald Trump have introduced a factor of uncertainty that could alter the balance between inflation and employment, the two pillars of the dual mandate of the Fed. Although the most recent data indicate that inflation is maintained contained and the labor market remains firm, the effects of tariffs could feel later, especially in the form of price increases and cooling of economic activity.

If that happened, the Fed would face a complex dilemma: prioritize price stability or sustain employment? Before a stagflation scenario (high inflation combined with economic stagnation), any movement could aggravate one of the problems. Therefore, for now, the Central Bank prefers to stay out.

In this context, although an immediate reduction of fees is not expected, The press conference after the meeting will be key. The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, could offer clues about the direction of monetary policy in the coming months.

Any mention to the risks associated with tariffs or the negative impact on consumption could be interpreted as an opening towards a more flexible position. Similarly, if Powell stands out the solidity of current data and the need for prudence, the market could read it as a sign of continuity of the current level of rates, at least for a few more weeks.

For Bitcoin, this balance is especially delicate. A more relaxed Fed could release a new wave of capital towards alternative assets. But a tougher posture – for example, if an extension of the high rate cycle is hinted – could momentarily stop the enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market.

If the Fed keeps the rates but hints cuts on the nearby horizon, Bitcoin is likely to react with a new upward impulse. This possibility, combined with other factors already mentioned – as the reactivation of institutional purchases, the capital entrance to the ETFs and the weakening of the dollar by monetary expansion – could prepare the land so that BTC exceeds the USD 98,000 and looks for new maximums.

On the contrary, If the message is more conservative than expectedand the Fed expresses concern about the inflationary effects of tariffs, The market could moderate its enthusiasm. In that case, BTC could enter a longer consolidation phase while waiting for more conclusive data.