Bitcoin rises 3.72% before the impact of government closure in the US: Analysis on October 2
By Canuto
Bitcoin has experienced a solid rebound of 3.72% in the last 24 hours, reaching USD $ 118,841, driven by the context of a government closure in the United States that positions the asset as a safe refuge. This analysis broken down the macro, technical and fundamental drivers behind the movement.
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- BTC rises 3.72% to USD $ 118,841
- Daily volume reaches USD $ 67.76 mmd
- Total capitalization at USD $ 2,368.3 mmd
- SMA-7 at USD $ 112,529.5 supports Momentum
- Risks by Shutdown in the US promotes refuge
- INFLOWS ETF hold institutional adoption
This analysis does not constitute an investment council. Always carry out your own research and consider your objectives and financial situation before investing in cryptocurrencies.
Date: 2025-10-02
Executive summary
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in upward territory after an advance of 3.72% in the last 24 hours, quoting at USD $ 118,841.92 with a market capitalization of USD $ 2,368.3 mmd.
This movement reflects a momentum driven by macro factors such as the threats of Governmental Shutdown in the US, which position BTC as an active refuge, together with institutional inflows in ETF that exceed USD $ 1,000 mmd in the week.
The volume of daily trading has climbed to USD $ 67.76 mmd, 39.39% above the average of 30 days, pointing out greater liquidity and participation.
Quantitative Highlights include a 7 -day return of 8.80%, a daily range of USD $ 114,296.66 to USD $ 118,600.49 yesterday, and a proximity to the ATH of USD $ 123,873.36 with only -4.06% distance.
The main thesis is short -term bullish: BTC could try resistances in USD $ 120,000 if the feeling shelter persists, but corrections towards supports in USD $ 112,000 are probable to macro volatility.
For investors, this implies accumulation opportunities in DIPS, with risk management adjusted to political events.
• Key metric
• Current price USD $ 118,841.92 → Confirms Breakout Alcista on SMA-7, implying sustained momentum if volume is maintained.
• Volume vs. Cap %2.86 → greater than average, suggests buying and potential conviction for rally extensions.
• Change from ATH -4.06% → space for Upside, but monitor overcompra in RSI to avoid setbacks.
Causes of recent movements
The 3.72% rebound in BTC in the last 24 hours is mainly attributed to the growing tensions by the Shutdown of the US government, which has driven flows to alternative assets such as refuge.
Co-Intelegraph reports highlight how this Non-Event has catalyzed a rally, with BTC uploading to USD $ 118,000 despite uncertainty.
Additionally, Inflows in ETF of BTC have reached weekly peaks, reflecting institutional demand in the face of expectations of fed fees.
In derivative metrics, the Rates Founding in Perpetuals remain positive at +0.01%, indicating bullish bias without overheating, while the Open Interest in CME futures has grown 5% to USD $ 15,000 mmd, pointing out strong directional bets.
The feeling in social networks, based on X posts with high engagement, shows optimism with mentions of ‘Digital Gold’ in Shutdown context, although contrary Views warn of FUD if the dollar is strengthened.
On-Chain, daily transactions have increased by 12% to 450,000, and holders active by 8% to 1.2 million, supporting organic adoption.
Implicit volatility in detribit options around 45%, above average, implying expected but not extreme swings.
Price Action and Technical Analysis
• Usd opening price $ 114,322.05 → broke intra -resistance, implying bullish continuation if it closes on USD $ 118,600.
• Usd range $ 118,426.55 – USD $ 118,841.92 → Low amplitude suggests consolidation, with potential breakout if volume accelerates.
• Volume %39.39 vs. 30 days → confirms validity of the movement, reducing Fakeout risk.
The BTC chart shows a bullish flag pattern in the 4-hour Timeframe, with the price bouncing from the USD $ 112,529.5.
The RSI (14) is in 65, why it matters: this oscillator measures momentum (0-100), values> 70 indicate overcompra; Here suggests strength without exhaustion, implying space for Upside before correction, actionable: monitoring for partial sales if> 70.
The MACD shows bullish crossing with histogram expanding, why it matters: it detects changes in tendency force via Emas; Positive implies acceleration, actionable: Long input if line> signal, stop-loss under SMA-7.
Mobile stockings: SMA-30 in USD $ 113,417.72 acts as a dynamic support, why it matters: they soften noise for trends; Golden Cross Cross (SMA-50> SMA-200) in force for months, actionable: accumulate in Dips to USD $ 113,000.
| Level | Guy | Why does it matter |
|---|---|---|
| USD $ 120,000 | Endurance | Recent psychological and ATH; Breakout implies Rally at USD $ 123,000. |
| USD $ 116,000 | Endurance | Fibonacci 61.8% setback; Falling test could lead to pullback. |
| USD $ 114,000 | Medium | SMA-15; Defense here maintains bullish structure. |
| USD $ 112,000 | Medium | SMA-7; Rally Rupture, Actionable: Adjust Stop-Loss. |
Fundamental analysis
BTC capitalization in USD $ 2,368.3 MMD represents 52% of the total Crypto market, with 19.7 million circulating supply and total of 21 million, why it matters: Inherent shortage supports long -term valuation.
On-chain metrics indicate robustness: daily transactions in 450,000 (vs. 400,000 average), active holders in 1.2 million (+8%), why it matters: they measure real utility; Growth suggests adoption beyond speculation, actionable: Bullish for Hodl Si> Media.
Adoption includes partnerships with institutions such as Blackrock in ETF, and TVL in BTC ecosystem (Layer 2 as Lightning) in USD $ 500 mmd, contextualizing superiority vs. peers.
Relative assessment: P/s implicit ratio (volume/cap) in %2.86 vs. Ethereum %1.5, indicates premium by liquidity.
| Metrics | BTC | Eth (comparable) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAP MARKET | USD $ 2,368.3 mmd | USD $ 450 mmd | BTC domain reduces systemic risk. |
| Volume/Cap | %2.86 | %1.5 | Greater liquidity in BTC for trades. |
| Active holders | 1.2m | 800k | Superior adoption supports base price. |
| Ecosystem TVL | USD $ 500 mmd | USD $ 60 mmd | Utility BTC grows, Undervalued vs. DEFI FOCUS ETH. |
Scenarios and probable levels
| Scenery | Probability | Range target price | Catalysts | Invalidation signal | Risk Management |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | High | USD $ 120,000 – $ 123,000 | Shutdown confirmed, Inflows ETF +10%, RSI <70. | Rupture | STOP-USD $ 115,000, UKE-PROFIT USD $ 122,000 (50% position). |
|
| Neutral | Average | USD $ 116,000 – $ 119,000 | Post-rally consolidation, stable founding races, average volume. | Volatility> 50% without direction. | Hold with trailing stop 2% low current price. |
| Bassist | Low | USD $ 112,000 – $ 114,000 | Shutdown resolution without impact, dxy +2%, RSI> 70 overblain. | Rebound> USD $ 119,000. | Sell partial at USD $ 117,000, Usd Stop $ 110,000 for preservation. |
Trading signal evaluation
Integrating technical, fundamental and scenarios, the recommendation is to buy with medium-high certainty (70% based on 4/6 bullish signs: positive MacD, volume> average, on-chain growing, inflows ETF, vs. rsi approaching overbuilding and macro risks).
METHODOLOGY: We ponde technical (40%: 3/4 Bullish indicators), fundamental (30%: adoption +15%qoq), derivatives (20%: positive founding, oi up), feeling (10%: 70%posts x bullish with> 100 fraves).
This implies sustained future momentum if Shutdown persists, with expected volatility of 40-50%; Entry opportunities For beginners: signs quantify bias; Here, evidence will overcome views of overvaluation. Specific action: accumulate 20-30% portfolio in BTC below USD $ 117,000, adjust Stop -los to USD $ 114,000 to protect profits. In summary, BTC exhibits strength against macro catalysts, with technicians and fundamental aligned for moderate Upside, although correction risks persist. For short term (day/swing: Trade Longs in USD supports $ 116,000, USD Targets $ 120,000, Usd Stops $ 114,500; Monitor volume for confirmation. Medium term (weeks-months): accumulate in USD ranges $ 112,000-115,000 against Inflows, diversify 20% in Alts correlated as ETH. Long term (years): Hodl Core Position, since SUPPLY fixed and global adoption (EG, reserves such as in Sweden) support> USD $ 150,000 in 2026. Conservatives: Assign <10% Portfolio, Use ETF for indirect exposure, Stops Trailing 5-10% and rebuild monthly vs. S&P 500. General Risk Management: Do not exceed 2% capital by Trade, monitor correlation with DXY (inverse -0.7) for hedges. This analysis does not constitute an investment council. Always carry out your own research and consider your objectives and financial situation before investing in cryptocurrencies.
WARNING: Diariobitcoin offers informative and educational content on various topics, including cryptocurrencies, AI, technology and regulations. We do not provide financial advice. Cryptactive investments are high risk and may not be adequate for all. Investigate, consult an expert and verify the applicable legislation before investing. I could lose all its capital.
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