Bitcoin will face determining days for its price
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week above $ 90,000 and this encourages the expectations of those who want to see it mark historical maximums. But … what will really happen?
To answer this question it is essential to understand that The macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in the price of Bitcoin currently. Therefore, it is important to be aware of issues and the tariff war that the president of the United States has unleashed Donald Trump.
The Colombian analyst, Juan Rodríguez, dedicated his most recent video to the analysis of these issues that, although they do not have to do directly with BTC, impact the market. He explains that “there is a good rhetoric from the White House on the tariff issue and that has led to bullish impulse, but those agreements around tariffs with other countries are not yet concluded and the problem is that the time for those agreements to occur before the tariffs pass invoice is shortened.”
As cryptootics has reported, the “tariff war” led by Donald Trump’s policies, is in a 90 -day “truce” for most countries as of April 9, 2025, which gives an approximate term until the beginning of July 2025 to negotiate commercial agreements and avoid the reimposition of more severe tariffs. This truce does not apply to China, which faces 145% tariffs, while other countries have a 10% base tariff during this period.
In this context, Commercial Peace Signs (especially between the two great commercial powers: United States and China) They would be extremely beneficial for the price of Bitcoin For several reasons.
First, because it would considerably reduce generalized uncertainty in global markets, which would increase the appetite for risk assets, a category in which Bitcoin is still located by many institutional investors.
In addition, if a scenario is specified in which trade negotiations advance positively, rapid recovery could be triggered in traditional financial markets.
The latter generally causes favorable conditions for institutional and retail investors to redouble their “bets” in Bitcoin, since in bullish contexts of the financial market, investments in digital assets usually accelerate. Bitcoin would benefit from generalized optimism, capturing an important part of the capital flow that moves in search of greater returns.
Consequences of the “tariff war”
But, if there will be international commercial agreements, they will need to arrive quickly, without much more delay.
Bloomberg analysts show that the “tariff war” is already having a negative impact on international trade. In a April 27 publication, it is indicated that “the number of charueros ships towards the US. UU. It has decreased by 40% since the beginning of April. Even a trade recovery will bring bottlenecks due to the lack of capacity in ports and transportation ».
The aforementioned specialists anticipate that, even if the trade war is relieved, The negative consequences of the policies established by Trump “could extend to the Christmas season.”
In addition, it is expected that there are inflationary consequences on the domestic economy:
«Retailers like Walmart and Target warned Trump that consumers will see empty shelves and higher prices. The chief economist of Apollo Management, Torsten Slok, warned about possible mass layoffs in several industries. Jim Gerson, president of a firm providing Christmas decorations, said: ‘Time runs’. Your company, which generates about 100 million dollars annually, has more than 250 containers stopped waiting to be sent from China.
Bloomberg, specialized information agency in finance.
In the midst of chaos, there is hope
Finance and Macroeconomy specialists, Anand Krishnamorthy and Kit Rees, comment that in this context that seems extremely adverse for markets, there is still some hope.
They point out that, little by little, Market fluctuations have moderated. It is as if the world was progressively adapting to this new tariff normality. Anyway, Krishnamorthy and Rees say that “investors will carefully analyze the key reports of this week’s companies to determine the impact of US commercial policies on profits.”
If these analysis give positive results, The hope that the Federal Reserve could be supported (Fed) of the United States Interest rate cuts Before planned.
An eventual reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve would benefit from the price of Bitcoin. This is due to the fact that lower interest rates make traditional investments in treasury bonds and similar low -risk assets, since real returns could approach zero or even become negative if inflation remains high.
Given this situation, institutional and individual investors seek alternatives that can offer better yields. Bitcoin, being an asset with limited emission and whose performance history exceeds many traditional assets in prolonged periods, appears as a natural option for those who seek to protect and grow their capital.
Additionally, expansive monetary policy, implicit in a reduction in interest rates, tends to weaken the US dollar against other currencies and assets. This indirectly strengthens the price of Bitcoin when perceived as a shelter against the loss of value of the Fíat currencies. In recent years, BTC has earned the reputation among investors to protect against the monetary and fiscal weakness of many governments, especially when relaxed monetary policies are applied, which significantly increase the amount of money in circulation, eroding their value.
Not only of the live macroeconomy Bitcoin
Apart from the macroeconomic context, Bitcoin has its own factors that favor their long -term assessment. One of the most relevant is the anti -inflationary nature of its money supply.
Bitcoin has a limited issue to 21 million coinssomething established since its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. This scarcity mechanism is deepened every four years through the event known as Halving, which reduces in half the reward that miners receive to validate new blocks. These post-halving cycles have historically caused significant increases in the price due to the reduction of the new supply that enters the market, thus increasing the buying pressure compared to a progressively more restricted offer.
At the moment, We are precisely in one of these periods after halving (occurred in April 2024), which historically has been a blunt bullish sign for Bitcoin. Each of these previous cycles demonstrated a clear trend: after the halving, approximately 18 to 24 months, Bitcoin usually reaches new historical maximums in its price.
The underlying logic is simple: Less Bitcoin available to be mined means less new offer entering the market. If the demand, even remaining constant, finds less supply, the price inevitably rises. However, if this reduced supply dynamic is combined with a macroeconomic context that favors investment in alternative assets, conditions can become even more conducive to a sustained increase in the price of BTC.
Another relevant factor is the growing institutional adoption (and more recently, state) that continues to show Bitcoin. Large investment firms, coverage funds, technology companies and pension fund managers are progressively expanding their positions in BTC as part of their portfolio diversification strategies. This represents a new and sustained structural demand for BTC, which is unlikely to be reversed in the short term. The existence and launch of new regulated financial products, such as Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US and other key markets, are also facilitating the entry of mass institutional capital into BTC, generating sustained bullish pressure on its price.
Finally, the phenomenon of Retail adoption He also plays a crucial role. The narrative around Bitcoin continues to strengthen with new generations of investors, which receive the digital currency as an alternative superior to the traditional financial system. This, combined with the growing ease of access to Bitcoin purchase platforms, helps maintain a constant flow of new buyers interested in protecting against inflation and economic uncertainty.
The professional trader and market analyst, Willy Woo, explains:
«Bitcoin prepares for another rupture of historical maximums if the capital flow trend continues. It is a solid long -term perspective. Under the current regime, all falls are to buy. In the very short term, there are good probabilities of falls ».
Willy Woo, Trader and Market Analyst.
In short, although the immediate panorama for Bitcoin depends largely on the development of macroeconomic events, particularly the evolution of the commercial war between the United States and China, it is also true that Intrinsic factors of digital currency are creating a favorable context in the medium and long term.
Any substantial improvement in global conditions, accompanied by a flexibility of American monetary policy (which is the main world financial power), could provide the necessary spark to carry the price of Bitcoin again towards historical maximums, consolidating its position as a key financial asset in the immediate future.
Discharge of responsibility: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of cryptootics. The author’s opinion is informatively and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
