Bitcoin will have a different behavior from that of previous cycles, according to analyst

The Bitcoin (BTC) market lives a new chapter in its history of promotions and corrections, but this time with a different nuance.

Key participants, such as large companies and quoted funds (ETF) of Bitcoin, They would be modulating the market rhythm to avoid premature overheatingseeking to extend the duration of this upward cycle, says the company Cryptoquant, in a report prepared by the analyst that is identified as Crypto Dan.

Unlike the patterns of previous years, The current behavior suggests a deliberate strategy to extend the growth phasewhich could culminate in a euphoric stage with prices of up to 200,000 dollars or more for Bitcoin.

Past cycles: a pattern of promotions and corrections

In the 2017 upward cycle, Bitcoin’s price showed a sustained bullish trendinterrupted by brief corrections. The analyst highlights a correction of seven to eight months in the middle phase late from that year, similar in duration of the one observed in 2024.

The following capitalization graph made, segmented by the age bands of the UTX Signal of accumulation by long -term investors.

However, during the 2017 rise, these currencies began to move towards new buyers, marking a typical distribution phase of a upward market in its final stage.

The 2021 cycle, meanwhile, faced a prolonged correction at the beginning, aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which extended the setback to almost a year.

After this phase, the market experienced a robust rebound with minimal corrections until its conclusion. The graph shows that, after the accumulation in 2018 and 2019, the old coins dominated again, but the 2020-2021 rebound He moved control at the hands of short -term traderswith a notable expansion of young age bands in the UTXO.

Current Bitcoin Cycle

In the current cycle (2024-2025), Bitcoin has shown distinctive behavior. The initial phase included brief corrections followed by reboundsbut 2024 brought setbacks pronounced in two key moments: from March to November and from January to April 2025.

During these periods, the Altcoins recorded weak performance, affecting the general feeling of the market, explains the analyst.

The current rebounds are accompanied by a contraction in the old age bands of the UTXO, while the youngest grow, indicating that “Hodlers” are selling to new investors.

However, the specialist believes that, unlike previous cycles, This shows patterns of “artificial suppression”, interpreted as efforts from key participants.

These can be, for example, companies that accumulate Bitcoin and ETF managersto cool the market and prolong the cycle. “These movements seek to avoid premature overheating, preparing the ground for a euphoric phase with a significant bubble,” explains the analyst.

Institutional players mark the rhythm

These key participants include large companies such as Twenty One Capital, which recently raised $ 100 million through convertible bonds, Adding a total of 685 million dollars, mainly destined to acquire Bitcoin.

This firm, the third with the greatest possession of Bitcoin among traded companies, follows the steps of giants such as Strategy and Mara Holdings.

Likewise, Bitcoin ETFs have facilitated the entry of institutions to the market, offering exposure without the need to manage the asset directly. These actions, They contribute to the market stabilization strategy to extend the upward cycle.

Ambitious projections for the price

The predictions on the price of Bitcoin vary, but the consensus points high. Manuel Beaudroit, CEO of the Argentine Exchange Belo, estimates a range of $ 180,000 to $ 200,000 for this phase of dollars, as reported cryptooticies.

For its part, Standard Chartered projects sustained growth: $ 300,000 in 2026, $ 400,000 in 2027 and $ 500,000 in 2028, stabilizing up to 2029. These figures They reinforce the expectation of a final phase marked by euphoria, although under more strategic control than in past cycles.