Bitcoin’s bullrun charged gasoline; China and USA. They reached an agreement

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been bringing around its historical maximum for 5 days, but without breaking it. Now, with the lit engines and the macroeconomic wind in favor, it can be assumed that the next great bullish rally would be about to begin.

This Monday, May 12, global markets received one of the most anticipated news of the year: The United States and China reached an agreement to reduce tariffs and suspend a good part of reciprocal rates for 90 days.

It is an immediate relief in a commercial war that had been climbing quickly, and that had affected not only bilateral relations between both powers, but also global trade, raw material prices, and appetite for risk in financial markets.

The effects of this agreement did not wait. The futures of the main US stock market rates – like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq – were upwards at the opening of the day. The dollar was strengthened against other currencies and the Chinese Yuan reached its highest level in six months. Even the shares of shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd climbed more than 10%, anticipating normalization of international trade.

This favorable context was also felt in the Bitcoin ecosystem and cryptocurrencies, where enthusiasm became almost palpable. BTC quotes at the time of writing this note around 105,000 dollars, only approximately 5,000 from its historical maximum close to $ 110,000. The market is clearly in optimistic mode.

The fear and greed index, which measures the feeling of the market based on various indicators such as volatility, volume, momentum of the price and internet searches, currently marks levels of “greed.”

These types of readings usually occur in moments of incipient euphoria, when investors begin to feel that “something big is coming” and do not want to stay out.

One of the most visible signs of this greed is the rebound of memecoins, these cryptocurrencies without solid technical foundations but that manage to capture the attention of thousands of traders in times of high liquidity and enthusiasm.

As can be seen in the following image, several non-series tokens are among the 10 that have the highest weekly rise (within the Top 100 per market capitalization).

When speculative money returns to memecoins, it is usually because the appetite for the risk is back. And when that happens, Bitcoin is not far behind.

Until a few weeks ago, the stage was completely different. The commercial war had climbed with new tariffs to dozens of countries imposed by the Trump administration.

With the passing of the days, import rates to Chinese products reached a huge 145%, while China responded with a 125% tariff rise to US goods and restrictions on the export of rare earths, essential for the US technological and military industry.

The panorama was tense, uncertain, with inflationary risks for disruptions in supply chains and with a latent threat of global economic deceleration.

But the agreement of this May 12, although temporary and valid only 90 days, has been received as an unexpected and positive turn. Both parties agreed to drastically reduce reciprocal rates: 145% to 30% in the case of the USA and 125% to 10% in the case of China. In addition, a formal mechanism was established to continue negotiations and avoid future climbs.

In parallel to all this, as cryptootics reported it, The expectation of an interest rate cut is latent latent by the United States Federal Reserve at some point in 2025.

Although Jerome Powell has not confirmed this possibility, it has not ruled out either, and that has been enough for the market to begin to discount it gradually.

The combination of lower commercial tension, greater expected liquidity, and a dollar still strong but stable, creates the perfect conditions for Bitcoin – an asset that has proven to move strongly when the appetite for risk increases – begins a new bullish impulse.

If the Fed finally lowers rates, or if inflation and growth data are still favorable, the BTC path to new maximums will be even clearer.

Bitcoin is no longer a marginal bet

This scenario confirms something that attentive observers have been noticing for a long time: Bitcoin is no longer just a value reserve or a coverage against inflation. It also behaves as a financial asset that responds to macroeconomic stimuli and humor of global markets.

In other words, BTC has matured as active and today is driven by the same factors that move the stock exchanges or bond market. The difference is that, When the spark comes on, Bitcoin usually multiply the movement of other assets.

That is why it is not surprising that what happens in the G7 meetings, in the decisions of the European Central Bank, in the US employment data or in the commercial agreements between impact powers, directly or indirectly, in the price of Bitcoin.

With the price around 105,000 dollars and the historical maximum only one step, the market prepares for a possible bullish rupture. Technically, exceeding 110,000 would open the door to a new price section, with increasingly diffuse resistances.

But beyond the technical, what matters most today is the financial fuel that begins to accumulate at this stage. There is trust, there is greed, there is liquidity and there is stability (at least for now) in the relations between the main economies of the world. And that, in the Bitcoin universe, can translate into an imminent bullish rally. The market already has the fuel it needed.