Bitcoin’s market is in caution mode

Financial markets pass an uncertain land, where the fear of investors collides with stabilization signs.

Bitcoin (BTC), in the eye of the hurricane, It shows indications of a new bullish phase, while the effects of global tariffs seem to lose strength.

In this context, feeling metrics They reveal an extreme caution panorama, but also of long -term opportunities For assets considered “risk” as Bitcoin.

Panic in feeling metrics

The AAII Sentiment Survey, a thermometer of the mood of investors, reflects generalized pessimism.

Most bet on a market drop. The current bullish/bassist differential equals 2009 and 2022 levelseven exceeding the Covid-19 crisis in 2020.

This metric that measures the feeling of investors on the management of the market. It is calculated by subtracting the percentage of investors who believe that the market will fall (bassists) to the percentage that will believe that it will rise (bulls).

Despite what Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have fallen less than 15 %, panic dominatesindicates a report from the investment firm Capriole Investments.

For its part, the metric of fear and greed of CNN records its worst reading in years. These pessimism extremes usually coincide with significant opportunities for “risk” assets such as Bitcoin.

Although prices could continue to fall, perspectives at 6, 12 or 24 months tend to be favorable, Capriole stands out. “There is blood and fear in the streets,” says the report, despite the moderate price drop.

Cryptomercado: between fear and neutrality

In the field of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, The CoinmarketCap CoinmarketCap Faric Index and Avariaa neutral level. This indicator, which ranges between 0 (extreme fear) and 100 (extreme greed), measures the emotional pulse of the market.

A score between 40 and 60 reflects a balance, without a clear domain of optimism or pessimism. However, current neutrality contrasts with the generalized panic captured by other metrics, suggesting a less convulsive BTC market than the traditional.

This is because Bitcoin has characteristics that make it a good long -term value reservesomething that investors see more clearly.

Among them, its shortage stands out mainly, with a circulating that can never exceed 21 million BTC.

To that is added that it is resistant to censorship and unconfiscable, which makes it especially attractive in crisis scenarios where, on many occasions, governments have taken money from citizens to correct state deficits.

Bitcoin shows upward recovery signs

While the feeling fluctuates, Bitcoin stars in a relevant technical change. A rupture candle at $ 94,000 unleashed yesterday a significant recovery in the daily and weekly temporal frames, After two months below the range of 91,000-100,000 dollars.

“Unless we see a significant change (for example, a daily closure below USD 91,000), it is difficult to obtain a more bullish technical chart,” says the firm.

This “rank recovery” confirms, according to Capriole, A change of tendency towards a bullish phase. “It is difficult to find a more bullish technical chart,” says the firm, unless the price falls below $ 91,000 at a daily closure.

This movement is not isolated. Bitcoin’s energy value, according to Capriole, exceeded $ 130,000 this month, which implies a 40 % discount compared to its fair value.

Historically, Bitcoin has recovered these discounts, and such a low level after halving is a rarity that investors observe carefully.

The tariff conflict seems to cool

The macroeconomic panorama also shows signal signs. As Cryptonoticias reported, since the implementation of global tariffs on April 2, baptized as the “Day of Liberation”, the United States reduced its reach by 50% and decreed a 90 -day break.

Volatility in actions and bonds forced President Donald Trump to moderate his tariff ambitions, according to Capriole. This setback suggests that the worst of tariffs could have happened.

To this is added the action of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Since last April 1, the agency cut in 95% the adjustment of its balance, marking the end of quantitative adjustment 2021-2025.

Jerome Powell has suggested possible responses to the economic tensions derived from tariffs, and the CME Fedwatch anticipates three rates cuts before the end of the year.

For its part, the American treasure, led by Scott Besunt, is ready to intervene with tools such as repurchases if the bond market deteriorates.

These measures configure what Capriole calls the “triple sales option”: The joint support of the White House, the Fed and the Treasury to stabilize the markets. A 15 % drop in shares, a VX greater than 30 and the increase in credit differentials were enough to stop the most aggressive tariff policies.

Risks and opportunities in a dynamic market

Despite these signals, the risk persists. Political volatility and abrupt changes in macroeconomic policies represent latent threats.

However, the convergence of technical, fundamental and feeling factors points to a favorable moment for Bitcoin.

To consolidate this upward trend, The price must be kept above $ 91,000 at weekly closure.

The Bitcoin market, in particular, moves at high speed. What yesterday was bassist today can be bullish, and investors must closely monitor data and policies. Capriole emphasizes that, If Bitcoin closes the week at these levels, new historical maximums could be in sight.