Bitcoin’s parabolic phase would be arriving
Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be entering a new stage of its cycle, with technical signs and macroeconomic factors that point to a possible parabolic phase. This upward trend could be extended until October 2025, promoted by technical indicators, international trade agreements and the growing institutional adoption.
Bitcoin has demonstrated cyclical behavior linked to halvings, events that occur approximately every four years and reduce in half the reward that miners receive to validate transactions. This mechanism, designed to control the issuance of new bitcoin, It usually triggers acceleration phases in the price known as parabolic phases.
During these stages, the price experiences significant rebounds in a short period, forming what analysts call “masts” or “antlers” in technical patterns such as bullish flags.
Investor and analyst David Zanoni points out that All Bitcoin cycles have culminated in a parabolic phase. In the last two cycles, the period between the minimum and the maximum of the price lasted exactly 1,064 days, while the first cycle was extended for 1,148 days.
In the current cycle, initiated after the halving of April 2024, the price has not yet reached 1,064 days, which suggests that there could be room for a rebound until October 2025. “The recent price action reinforces this possibility,” says Zanoni.
For its part, The parabolic phase is characterized by a pronounced acceleration of the price. “This is where the masts of the bullish flag formations are formed,” explains Zanoni.
If the current cycle follows the pattern of the previous ones, this phase could last about six months, Starting in April 2025 and extending until September or October. This period coincides with the 1,064 average days of the previous cycles, which supports the theory of a sustained rebound.
Indicators show an upward trend in formation
The technical graphics offer clear clues about Bitcoin’s course. In the following weekly graphic, The price has shown an upward trend in April and May 2025.
The relative force index (RSI), an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, exceeded the level of 50, which indicates the beginning of a new upward trend. This movement is supported by the convergence-Divergence of mobile socks (MACD), another key indicator.
The blue line of the MACD is about to cross the red signal line, while the histogram bars have passed from red to rose, with the possibility of becoming green. “If the blue line crosses the red line and the bars become green, this would be a solid confirmation of an upward trend,” says Zanoni.
Besides, Bitcoin seems to be overcoming a bullish flag formationa technical pattern that usually precedes significant bullish movements. This formation was consolidated between December 2024 and March 2025, after reaching a historical maximum of $ 109,000 in January.
“It is possible that the price proves that level and retreated before exceeding it,” says Zanoni, who emphasizes that breaking this threshold would be a critical step to confirm the parabolic phase.
In the monthly graph, the RSI is just below the overcompra level of 70. Historically, the RSI has reached extreme levels above 90 before the price touches its maximum. In the previous cycle, a double roof was formed with a bearish divergence, where the price reached a higher maximum, but the RSI marked a lower maximum.
“Bitcoin could have a wide margin to climb before reaching its maximum in this cycle,” says Zanoni, although he clarifies that there is no guarantees that the past behavior is repeated.
Macroeconomic factors: commercial and monetary policy agreements
Beyond the technical indicators, Macroeconomic factors are playing a crucial role in Bitcoin’s rebound.
Recent trade agreements have dissipated part of the uncertainty that has affected global markets. For example, on May 8, 2025, the United States and the United Kingdom announced an agreement that strengthens bilateral commercial relations.
However, the main focus is in negotiations between the United States and China, which have marked a significant milestone.
The commercial war between both powers He climbed with tariffs that reached 145% on Chinese products in the United States and 125% on US goods in China. In addition, China imposed restrictions on the export of rare earths, essential for the technology and military industry.
However, on May 12, 2025, both nations agreed to a temporary 90 -day “fire”, reducing tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectivelyand establishing a mechanism to continue negotiations. This agreement, reported by cryptootics, has been received as a positive catalyst for markets, including Bitcoin.
Likewise, the possibility that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in the coming months could further boost the price. Lower rates would increase liquidity in the markets, benefiting both Bitcoin and shares. However, inflation data will be decisive. “The effect of tariffs could maintain high inflation, reducing the probability of cuts this year,” says Zanoni.
Bitcoin Institutional and Domain Adoption
Institutional adoption remains a key engine for the price of Bitcoin. Investment companies and funds have increased their exposure to the currency, consolidating it as a reserve asset.
This phenomenon has contributed to the increase in Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptoactive market, which went from 55% to 62% between December 2024 and May 2025explained financial analyst Mike Fay.
Fay points out that, despite the expectations of a “Altcoins season” (where other cryptocurrencies exceed Bitcoin), BTC’s domain has remained solid. The Altcoins seasonal index of CoinmarketCap He fell to 12 in April, but rebounded 34 so far in May, his highest level in three months.
“The superior performance of the altcoins is usually an indicator of exhaustion of the upward market,” explains Fay, suggesting that the market still shows signs of overheating.
How far will Bitcoin arrive?
Zanoni projects an objective price of $ 150,000 for October 2025based on a multiple of 10 times the minimum of the cycle ($ 15,000) and the Fibonacci level of 2,618. However, it warns that the price may not exceed the historical maximum of $ 109,000.
“If Bitcoin maintains a rebound above this level, a parabolic phase is more likely to occur,” he says.
For its part, Fay uses the top cycle indicator, which combines the 111 -day mobile average and a 2x multiple on the 350 -day mobile average. Currently, this indicator places the top of the cycle at $ 157,000which implies a 50% rise potential from current levels.
Another indicator, the MVRV (ratio between the market value and the value made), shows that Bitcoin is not overvalued compared to previous cycles. With a current MVRV of 212%, it is far from 435% peaks in 2017 and 373% in 2021.
Fay also emphasizes that BTC yields have decreased with each halving. The first cycle generated a 7,000%return, the second of 3,000%and the third of 1,000%. For the current cycle, Fay considers that a 100% yield (around $ 130,000) is more realistic than 200% ($ 190,000). “It would be prudent to wait for a much lower performance to the previous cycle,” he says.
Narrative versus foundations
A debate point is whether BTC’s rise responds to solid foundations or a speculative narrative. Fay argues that the price is more linked to capital flows to an anti-fíat thesis than to the real utility of the decentralized system.
“Bitcoin, the digital asset, can be seen, but so far, that appreciation is due to the narrative than to a growing user base,” he says.
Even so, Fay does not rule out Bitcoin’s potential. “Given the rise in the price, the interest of investors and the lack of overheating indicators, Bitcoin remains a good purchase option,” he says.
However, warns that Bitcoin miners could face long -term challenges If incentives to validate transactions decrease.
A bithcoin upward path, but with risks
Bitcoin seems to be configuring for a parabolic phase that could take its price to new maximums in the coming months. Technical indicators, trade agreements and institutional adoption support this perspective, although the risks persist.
Inflation, Federal Reserve decisions and the ability to exceed the historical maximum of $ 109,000 They will be key factors to monitor.
Investors must proceed cautiously. As Zanoni warns, “there is no guarantee that Bitcoin behaves as in previous cycles.” However, with a RSI far from overcompra levels and macroeconomic catalysts at stake, the upward scenario seems solid.
