Gold reaches record and analysts foresee USD $ 4,000 per ounce in 2026

By Canuto

Gold reaches historical maximums driven by expectations of rates cuts and political crisis in the US.

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Gold played a USD record $ 3,895.09 per ounce on Wednesday
Markets anticipate a 25 -point basic rate cut this month
Political uncertainty in the US and weak labor data increase demand

Gold remains at levels close to historical maximums while global investors seek refuge against economic and political uncertainty in the United States. The combination of expectations of interest rate cuts and the partial closure of the US government has promoted the price of precious metal, which reached a record of USD $ 3,895.09 per ounce on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the gold in cash rose 0.5% to USD $ 3,883.69 per ounce, while gold futures in the US. For delivery in December they advanced 0.3% to USD $ 3,908.90. The downward pressure on the US dollar, which remained close to a minimum of a week, reinforced the demand for metal.

Economic and political context

The partial closure of the US government has put thousands of federal jobs at risk and threatens to delay the publication of key economic indicators, including the report of non -agricultural payrolls planned for this Friday. This situation, added to already weak labor data, has reinforced the perception of economic fragility.

According to figures published this week, private payroll fell into 32,000 positions in September, after a downward review of 3,000 jobs in August. These data reflect a cooling in the US labor market.

Political uncertainty has also played a relevant role. The dispute in Congress for the budget has generated fears about the government’s ability to maintain basic operations, increasing the perception of systemic risk.

Monetary policy expectations

Financial markets already discount an almost certain 25 basic points in the reference rate of the Federal Reserve this month, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. In this scenario, gold benefits, since it does not generate performance but gains attractiveness in low -rate environments.

Ole Hansen, head of raw material strategy at Saxo Bank, explained that “a weaker dollar, loose economic data and the closure of the government continue to attract investors who seek to join the momentum train.”

Goldman Sachs reinforced his upward recommendation on metal in a note published on Wednesday. The bank estimates that the risks of upload to USD $ 4,000 per ounce in mid -2026 and USD $ 4,300 at the end of that same year have increased, due to the strong speculative demand and the surprising accumulation of gold by funds quoted in the stock exchange (ETF).

Appetite for precious metals

The investment interest in gold is also reflected in the increase in the reserves of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest fund in gold in the world, which reported an increase of 0.59% in its holdings on Wednesday, up to 1,018.89 metric tons, its highest level since July 2022.

The bullish trend is not limited to gold. La Plata in cash rose 0.3% to USD $ 47.46 per ounce, while platinum advanced 1.9% to USD $ 1,587.01 and the paladium won 1.6% to USD $ 1,264.59.

Gold reaffirms its historical role as a refuge against volatility. With a lower interest rate environment and a rare -raised political climate, analysts anticipate that prices could be kept high in the coming months. If the tensions in Washington continue and the Federal Reserve deepens the cuts, the forecasts of reaching record levels of USD $ 4,000 could materialize before expected.

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