JPMorgan anticipates that US economy could avoid recession, but it will grow slow

The boss strategist JPMorgan He believes that the US could avoid a recession, although economic caution persists.

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• David Kelly, global strategist of JPMorgan, estimates that tax stimuli will reduce the probability of recession in 2025
  
• However, he warns that growth will remain slow and that consumers are beginning to feel pressure
  
• Factors such as rates, student loans and cuts in the public sector are weakening consumer spending

In a recent interview with CNBC, David Kelly, Global Chief Strata of JPMorganpresented a mixed evaluation about the economic trajectory of the USA. Although the risk of a recession has decreased, the panorama remains uncertain.

Kelly argued that the US economy could avoid a recession, thanks to factors such as the decline of some commercial rates and a new fiscal stimulus package approved by the Congress.

“The setback of rates and this great fiscal bill that will provide stimulus until 2026, with a slight impulse in 2025, takes us from a scenario where a recession was more likely where it is less likely”Kelly said CNBC.

According to their analysis, these elements will offer a temporary mattress that will allow the economy to remain afloat, although with a slower growth than usual.

Consumer spending, under pressure

Despite the possible general resilience, Kelly warned that consumer behavior could be a point of vulnerability. Factors such as resumption of student loan payments, possible inflation effects derived from new rates and general economic uncertainty could stop expense.

“Consumers are resilient, but there is a point where they are tightened too much,” pointed out. “If tariffs adds, collection of student payments, economic concerns and cuts in the public sector, all that begins to affect spending.”

This weakening of consumption represents a latent threat to growth, although Kelly insists that It is not enough to declare a formal recession.

The scenario that paints JPMorgan It is not of crisis, but of deceleration. “I think the economy is resilient enough to avoid a recession, but we will experience slow growth for a while”Kelly reiterated.

This type of growth could be maintained if there are no additional external shocks and if the labor market continues to show signs of relative strength.

Prudent perspective from JPMorgan

Although Kelly is less pessimistic than in previous projections, the financial institution does not consider the road to be clear. Uncertainty remains a key factor, and fiscal and commercial policy decisions will deeply influence the result.

JPMorgan It recommends to its customers to adopt a cautious posture, diversify investments and avoid assuming excessive risks in an environment where growth can be modest and the margins of error, small.

Let us keep in mind that the concern for a possible recession in the US Federal Reserve (Fed) He began to cool economic activity. Although the country avoided a technical recession in 2023, analysts have continued to adjust their forecasts based on indicators such as inflation, interest rates, employment and consumption.

Kelly’s statements are framed in this changing context, where political decisions, such as tax cuts, can significantly alter the macroeconomic panorama in a matter of months.

Written article with the help of an AI content editor, edited by Angel Di Matteo / Diariobitcoin

Original image of Diariobitcoin, created with artificial intelligence, for free use, licensed under public domain

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