One year after the fourth halving: thus the price of Bitcoin has evolved
By Hannah Pérez
Bitcoin has increased just 50% since its last halving in April 2024, marking the historical post reduction “worse” in half. We analyze the evolution of Bitcoin in previous cycles and its current state.
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- It has been a year since Bitcoin went through his 4th Halving. What happened?
- Bitcoin broke the USD $ 100ky retracted: it has only increased 50% from the reduction.
- The historical post-halving “worst performance is mostly due to the macro bearish context.
- Bitcoin recovers about USD $ 94,000, with a gain of almost 14% in April.
This month a milestone is fulfilled Bitcoin: Exactly one year has passed since its last halving.
On April 20, 2024, a scheduled event of the block chain of Bitcoin (BTC) known as halving, designed to guarantee shortage and maintain a controlled inflation rate.
Approximately every four years, Bitcoin It crosses a halving, an event that reduces the reward of the miners by half. Specifically, every 810,000 blocks, the mining reward of the network is cut by 50% effectively reducing the supply of BTC currencies that flow to the market. Over time, there will only be 21 million Bitcoins.
After the last event, the miners went from receiving a subsidy of 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block extracted from Bitcoin.
Historically, halvings have been associated with long -term price increases for Bitcoinalthough not always immediately. The greatest increases usually occur between 6 and 18 months later, with bullish markets that reach new historical maximum 12 to 17 months after the event; although with returns decreasing or varying event after event.
Bitcoin This week resumed a price of USD $ 95,000 amid an increase of more than 13% in April and after having conquered maximums of more than USD $ 109,000 in January, just 9 months after its latest halving.
HALVING: Cycle A Price Evolution
The first reduction by half of Bitcoin It happened in November 2012, when the mining reward went from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The next was in July 2016, followed by a third in May 2020 and the most recent view last April.
In each case, the price of cryptocurrency has exponentially grown a year later, although this percentage of returns has varied over the years. In November 2013, Bitcoin registered a gain of more than 7,000% price after the first halving in 2012, going from a level of USD $ 12 to a record at that time of approximately one thousand dollars 12 months later.
For the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin A growth close to 300%was ensured, rising from a price of USD $ 660 the day of the reduction, to almost USD $ 20,000 a year later, during the 2017 upward cycle. At that time the reward went from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
The increase after the third halving was even more impressive, with Bitcoin capitalizing a gain of more than 550% among its price of around USD $ 8,600 the date of the event at a peak of more than USD $ 69,000 for November 2021.
This year, despite the macro factors that have been weighing on global financial markets, it does not seem to be the exception. Bitcoin has increased just over 46% from the fourth halvingmoving from an approximate price of USD $ 64,000 on April 20 to USD $ 94,000 on April 27. If we take its peak of the beginning of the year, this performance is even greater.
Bitcoin Face pressure after his fourth halving
Yes ok Bitcoin It reached a historical maximum of more than $ 100,000 shortly after six months after the halving, and continued to increase to play a price close to USD $ 110,000 in January, its price deteriorated later. The uncertain macro scenario, characterized by commercial tensions between the United States and its partners, and recession concerns, impacted the market.
Bitcoin He closed the first quarter of 2025 with a negative performance of almost 12% marking its worst period from the Q2 of 2024. The prices, however, show a resilience signal for the start of the second quarter of the year. In the last week, Bitcoin He has recovered as the narrative of his status as a refuge in times of crisis takes strength among investors.
Even so, his return seems atypical so far for the current post-halving cycle. He “mediocre performance” of Bitcoin After the last reduction “has coincided with greater macroeconomic uncertainty ”according to the researchers of Kaiko.
“In Q1 of 2025, world commercial tensions intensified and the feeling of risk increased sharply“, The data provider published in a report published this week Kaiko.
«The worst performance»From Bitcoin post halving
After marking a positive performance of just two digits in the graphics compared to the increases of three and up to four digits in previous cycles, the team of Kaiko described the current performance of Bitcoin like “weaker after a reduction in half recorded in terms of percentage growth“
The comments refer to the inflexible monetary policy of the Federal Reserve of the United States, which has maintained high interest rates, a measure that usually generates risk aversion among investors.
Positive factors suggest long -term growth potential
Despite this immediate bearish scenario, there are factors –such as the number of active addresses, the volume of transactions and hash rates of Bitcoin– that demonstrate the solidity of the fundamentals of the asset and are signs of their “Wide usability and trust between investors“, According to Guilherme Nazar, regional vice president of Binance For Latin America.
“There is no doubt that Bitcoin is an asset that has matured in the eyes of the market. A year after halving, Bitcoin accumulates an almost 50%valuation, even in a complex macroeconomic and political scenario“Nazar said in comments on the halving sent by email to Diariobitcoin. “Global macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff disputes have dominated the global agenda […] But when we look at the foundations of the web3, we see that they continue strong”
Also factors such as constant demand among the funds listed on the stock market (ETF) of Bitcoin in cash and the tendency to adopt Bitcoin For the treasury of nations and corporations around the world, they suggest a potential long -term growth horizon.
While the return has been adjusted to 12 months of the halving with respect to the previous cycles, numerous analysts agree that Bitcoin It still has space to grow this cycle, with price projections that exceed USD $ 150,000 for the closing of 2025.
Hannah Estefanía Pérez / Diariobitcoin
Image generated with AI tool, under free use license
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