Polymarket operators bet heavily on Mamdani in the New York mayoral election

By Hannah Perez

Cryptocurrency bettors are putting nearly 90% odds on a victory for Mamdani as the next mayor of New York. The contract contrasts with recent traditional survey results.

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• Crypto bettors put a 90% chance that Mamdani will be elected mayor of New York.
• The balance tipped after the victory of the democratic socialist candidate in the primaries.
• Cuomo, with an initial probability of over 77%, has seen bets drop to 10%.
• The bets on Polymarket contrast with the recent results of traditional surveys.

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With less than four weeks until Election Day, scheduled for November 4, Democratic Socialist state legislator Zohran Mamdani positions himself as the clear favorite in the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, where bettors give him almost a 90% chance of victory.

This scenario contrasts with recent traditional polls that indicate a reduction in his advantage over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is competing as an independent after losing the Democratic primary.

The contract of Polymarket, released in April under the title “New York Mayoral Election”, has accumulated a total betting volume of more than USD $147 million, reflecting a radical change in the perspectives of operators in recent months.

Initially, Mamdani – a 33-year-old legislator originally from Queens, of Ugandan descent and the first Muslim to seriously aspire to the mayor’s office – had just an 8% chance, while Cuomo had more than 77%. However, The balance tipped sharply in June, when Mamdani surprised the political world with a victory in the Democratic primary. beating Cuomo and nine other candidates to capture the party’s nomination.

Since then, the odds in favor of Mamdani have increased consistently in Polymarket. A notable turning point occurred on June 24, when his estimated probability rose to around 10%, while Cuomo’s fell to 47%.

In September, Cuomo still held 16.4%, but it has now dropped to 9.9%. In terms of monetary volume, bets on Mamdani have attracted some $34.5 million, compared to Cuomo’s $11.3 millionunderscoring cryptocurrency investors’ enthusiasm for the progressive politician.

Polymarket clashes with traditional surveys

This favoritism in Polymarket clashes with the results of traditional surveys.

A recent survey of the Quinnipiac Universityconducted between October 3 and 7, shows Mamdani with 46% support among likely voters, followed by Cuomo with 33% and Republican Curtis Sliwa with 15%, according to coverage by Fox News. This represents a reduction in Mamdani’s lead, which in September was 22 points (45% compared to 23% for Cuomo).

According to Quinnipiac analyst Mary Snow, “The numbers changed, but the contours of the race did not: Cuomo captured the bulk of Adams’ supporters, cutting into Mamdani’s lead, but his double-digit favorite status remains intact.“.

In Polymarketthe other candidates, including Sliwa, co-founder of Guardian Angelsand Mayor Eric Adams, who withdrew from the race, have minimum chances of less than 1%, according to updated data from the prediction contract.

Mamdani challenges New York politics

The cited poll highlights demographic strengths: Mamdani leads among Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%) and 18-34 year olds (62%), driven by his focus on affordability and the high cost of living in New York, according to the report.

Mamdani’s proposals include eliminating bus fares, making CUNY tuition free, freezing rents in municipal housing, offering free child care up to age 5, and creating government-run supermarkets. Critics, however, accuse him of positions “extreme left”criticism of Israel and negative comments about the New York Police Department (NYPD), proposing transferring responsibilities to social services and community programs.

For his part, Cuomo – who resigned as governor in 2021 amid scandals – has gained ground among Jewish voters (60%) and has absorbed the support of former Mayor Adams, who dropped out of the race. Sliwa, who ran unsuccessfully four years ago, remains stable with Republican support (54%), the coverage adds.

The reporters of The Free Press, have highlighted how Mamdani’s victory in the primary has “challenged the traditional rules of New York politics” and the Democratic establishment. The discussion explores the implications of a Mamdani mayoralty for America’s largest city and national politics, questioning whether the race remains competitive with three leading candidates: Democrat Mamdani, independent Cuomo and Republican Sliwa.

Although surveys like that of Quinnipiac show a slippage of Mamdani, his sustained popularity positions him as the candidate with the greatest chances, this is what they suggest, not only certain experts, but also the bets with cryptocurrencies in Polymarket.

If Mamdani wins, he would become New York’s first Muslim and millennial mayor, marking a milestone in the city’s diversity. Meanwhile, Polymarket – where betting is based on real economic incentives – suggests that traders see a clear path forward for him, despite changing dynamics in the polls. The discrepancy between prediction markets and traditional polls highlights the uncertainty in this historic race.

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Article written with the help of AI, edited by DailyBitcoin

Image generated with an AI tool, under a free use license

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