Quantum computing is 20 times closer to breaking Bitcoin, Google warns

By Canuto

A recent study by a Google researcher has turned on the alarms on the ability of quantum computing to break the known encryption systems – including the one that protects Bitcoin. 20 times closer!

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A Google Quantum AI researcher showed that it is easier to break the RSA encryption of what was thought.
Quantum computers are 20 times closer to breaking Bitcoin’s security, according to new estimate.
Bitcoin uses elliptical curve cryptography (ECC), also vulnerable to quantum attacks.
While there are currently no computers with such capacity, the findings suggest that the timeline for potential real threats is closer to what was believed.

The safety of cryptocurrencies and digital information has historically supported the encryption systems considered practically unbreakable with conventional technology. However, a recent study from Google has revived fears about the real capacity of quantum computing to put in check the foundations of Bitcoin.

The article published by Craig Gidney, researcher at Google Quantum AIestimates that breaking the RSA encryption – currently used as standard in multiple systems, including bank accounts and cryptocurrency wallets – may require up to twenty times less quantum resources that were assumed since 2019.

Although the investigation – recognized by means such as COINDESK and Decrypt– Does not specifically mention Bitcoin Neither other cryptocurrencies, the findings could represent a paradigm shift worthy of attention, since it would alter all digital security projections known to date and imply an accelerated career to adapt the protection of digital assets.

Quantum computing: A threat to Bitcoin?

RSA is a public key encryption technique that has protected sensitive data for decades. Invulnerable to attacks through traditional computers, its strength lies in the difficulty of factoring extremely large numbers, work that only a quantum algorithm, such as that of Shorcould perform within a reasonable time if it has sufficient capacity.

Bitcoinin particular, it does not depend on RSA, but on the cryptography of elliptical curve (ECC). However, if quantum computers can decipher RSA faster than expected, the security timeline of Bitcoin He has just narrowed.

While 256 bits of the cryptocurrency is stronger than the oldest RSA keys that Google studied, it is not so much as it could be expected when it is an exponential scale. The truth is that the same Shor algorithm threatens both RSA and ECC, as it is able to solve the mathematical problem underlying both types of encryption.

In simple words, both the algorithm that protects wallets Bitcoin As global banking systems could, in the future, be violated by a quantum computer enough.

Google modifies its estimate: 20 times easier

In his most recent study, Gidney argues that less than one million noisy qubits would be required to factor an RSA integer of 2,048 bits in less than a week, compared to the 20 million calculated in 2019. It is a significant decrease and that significantly accelerates the arrival of real threats.

The researcher of Google It was explicit to quantify the advance: “This is a decrease of 20 times in the number of qubits compared to our previous estimate“Gidney said in the publication.

Despite the discovery, it is worth clarifying that there is currently any machine capable of executing this task, which means that the threat is not yet here. The most powerful quantum processor of IBM To date, Condorit reaches a little more than 1,100 qubits, while Sycamoreof Googlereaches 53.

Understanding quantum computing and its threat

Quantum computing takes advantage of the principles of quantum mechanics, using quantum bits or qubits instead of traditional bits.

Unlike bits, which represent a 0 or 1, the qubits can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously due to quantum phenomena such as overlap and intertwining. This allows quantum computers to perform multiple simultaneous calculations, which could solve problems that are currently intractable for classic computers.

Gidney’s mathematical advance, concluding that the necessary power is much lower than estimated, implies that time until the arrival of a specific threat is potentially shorter than was previously thought. This places pressure on cryptography developers and cryptocurrency holders to quickly find post-chanting solutions.

Bitcoin to break experiment

Although no quantum computer today can break transactions or wallets Bitcointhere are those who are trying.

The group Project 11, Focused on quantum research, it launched a public reward of 1 BTC – self -devoting to approximately USD $ 110,000 at this time – for those who manage to break tiny ECC keys (from 1 to 25 bits) with real quantum hardware.

Although these key sizes are insignificant and are not used in real operations, the objective is to have a concrete measure of how close are the laboratories to challenge current security systems.

Coming?

The crypto industry already seriously discusses the future of encryption. New standards are in development, such as post-chartography, which aims to preserve public and private data even if advanced quantum computers are available.

Meanwhile, it should not fall into alarmisms. While the investigation of Google It presents a much closer scenario for the obsolescence of traditional keys, no bank or exchange is under risk for this. Gidney’s report helps to turn on the debate and to motivate the search for robust solutions.

Article written with the help of AI, edited by Hannah Pérez / Diariobitcoin

Image generated with artificial intelligence, under a free use license

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