“Solana would be forming an unusual bullish pattern,” says analyst

A Trader and Analyst of the cryptocurrency market suggests that Solana (Sun) could soon experience an important fall that will be the prelude to an upward trend.

According to the analyst, which is identified as “The Alchemist Trader” in the TrainingView community, Sol is “in a critical decision zone”, because it lies near the control point (POC), considered the highest volume level within the recent range. This point acts as a key technical barrier and, if not surpassed strongly, could lead to an additional setback.

The resistance facing Sol at this time is significant. It is composed of two key elements: the maximum of the value area, which is where many operations were previously carried out and usually acts as a roof, and the 0.618 fibonacci setback, a technical measure that indicates points where the price can stop or be reversed.

These two levels Historically areas have been areas where the price tends to lowerso they could cause a temporary fall. This low would be part of an unusual figure, called “harmonic pattern”, in which the price descends in a final stretch before bouncing and rising more force.

The technical pattern identified by the analyst aligns with a possible fall to $ 95. This setback, although bassist in the short term, would not invalidate the upward movement in general. says “The Alchemist Trader.” On the contrary, it can be considered a necessary step within a greater -term bullish configuration, said the specialist.

The culmination of this pattern would serve as a starting point for an impulse that, if confirmed, could take the price to the area of ​​200 or moresays the author of the TrainingView community.

This graph clearly shows the projection of the analyst for the price of sun in the short term:

These types of harmonic patterns are rare but powerful when they are completed correctly, the specialist recalls. In this case, the indications of a “pious structure” They imply that a strong rebound can arise after correctionthus generating a significant change of tendency.

Meanwhile, Sol continues to operate within a range delimited by historical levels of high temporary frames, so the market must be kept in expectation, says the analyst. For him, a rupture with volume above the maximum of the value area would invalidate the harmonic pattern and would point out a possible immediate continuation of the rise.

Solana is in the forefront

In parallel to this technical analysis, Sol is being observed closely for regulatory reasons. The United States Stock Exchange and Securities Commission (SEC) is already reviewing eight applications to launch ETF based on that cryptocurrency. These instruments would allow traditional investors to access exposure to the price of asset from conventional stock market platforms, without the need to directly guard Solana.

Currently, ETF emitters are answering comments from the S-through their S-1 forms. This process could conclude before July 31, although the official deadline is October 10. The intention of the regulator would be to accelerate approval, which would open the doors to the first ETF in cash from a digital asset that is not Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH).

In this context, approval expectations have been reflected on platforms such as Polymarket. Users of this cryptocurrency -based betting house assign a 91% probability to the approval of a sun’s ETF for 2025, and 68% before Julio ends.

That imminent approval of the ETFs of Sol makes this cryptocurrency waiting for a “summer” that could lead to the price of the asset, currently on the USD 154, to higher figures. This according to the most recent analysis of the Vettafi Research firm, collected by cryptootics.

The advance in regulated financial products also includes the recent launch of the ETF “Rex Osprey Sol Staking” (SSK), which began to quote on the Chicago options (CBOE) options on July 2. This fund allows investors Obtain staking yields in addition to direct exposure to the price of sun.

In its first hours of operation, SSK captured 20 million dollars, placing among the upper 1% of the most successful releasesaccording to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. The early performance of this ETF suggests a high institutional interest and represents a milestone for products that incorporate passive income within the regulated market.

An inflationary behavior

However, the expansion of the Sun supply for 2025 has generated a complex environment. In six months, the amount of coins in circulation increased from 480 million to more than 530 million. This expansion of more than 15% year -on -year exert inflationary pressure on the pricehindering the consolidation of bullish movements.

The following graph shows the increase in sun emission in the last 6 months.

It must be taken into account that, since its historical maximum of 260 dollars, reached in November 2024, the Sun Quote has fallen by 40%. This could be explained in part by this supply pressurebecause in spite of the specific rebounds, the sustained growth has been limited by a demand that does not end up absorbing the new supply.

This context is relevant to evaluate any technical configuration, because the bullish potential must be measured in the face of the macroeconomic and structural foundations of the asset.

In that sense, although the technical analysis of “The Alchemist Trader” suggests a path to $ 200, The market must absorb both new emissions and expectations around ETFs To validate this trajectory.

Solana is located at both technical and structural crossroads. The harmonic pattern suggests a correction followed by a strong rebound, but the regulatory environment, inflationary pressure and institutional market movements They will be key factors to define their course in the second half of 2025.