Spaniards between 34 and 45 years old are the only group that has lost workers since the pandemic
Spain has today 1.3 million more jobs of those registered just before the pandemic paralyzed the country. Employment has recovered comfortably from the slap that the virus dealt to the economy. A recovery that has spread to practically all groups, with few exceptions. The most striking is perhaps that of the group of Spanish workers who are between 34 and 45 years old.
This age group is eThe only one in the entire Spanish demographic pyramid that has not recovered the levels it recorded before the pandemic, more than four years have passed. In fact, this generational cohort is still a long way off. The number of employed people in this age group reflected in the EPA for the first quarter of this year was still 10% below the last record before the pandemic (fourth quarter of 2019).
This follows from the Quarterly labor market observatory, a detailed analysis of the most recent labor data prepared by the Fedea study center together with BBVA Research and the Sagardoy Abogados firm. The low employment levels of the generation entering middle age contrast with those of the population groups that have lost employment during this time: young Spaniards and those over 55 years of age and foreigners between 24 and 34. Three out of every four jobs created since the end of 2019 have been occupied by people from these groups.
The low level of employment among people between 34 and 45 years old has an important demographic component. Part of the drop in employment in this group is due to the fact that in recent years more people have left it than have entered. That is, the number of people who have left this cohort when they were over 45 years old has been greater than the number of young people who have turned 34 years old and have joined it.
“Demography, in relative terms, has been worse. We do not see this in employment and unemployment rates,” says Florentino Felgueroso, coordinator of the study on the Fedea side. However, it doesn’t seem like it’s just age. “We see a lower tendency for this group to participate in the labor market,” says Rafael Doménech, head of economic analysis at BBVA Research.
40% of the young unemployed are not registered in the SEPE
On this occasion, the labor market observatory has included a specific analysis of the differences that exist between the unemployment recorded by the offices of the State Public Employment Service (SEPE) and that declared by citizens when asked by the INE. That is, the unemployment recorded in the Active Population Survey. The issue is quite technical, but it has sparked some media interest since the entry into force of the labor reform due to the role of discontinuous permanent employees.
The comparison between these two statistics leaves a couple of very interesting conclusions. The first is that the unemployment reflected by the SEPE tends to underrepresent youth unemployment compared to the EPA. Specifically, at Fedea they estimate that 40% of those under 24 years of age who appear as unemployed in the EPA are not registered in the SEPE.
This reflects that young people tend to register their status as job seekers less, probably because they have less incentive to do so when there is no benefit involved. Among those under 25 years of age, only 12% receive unemployment benefits. The EPA itself suggests that the unemployed do not see the SEPE as a way to get a job. Among the youngest, only 8% declare having contacted a public employment office to get a job.
In those over 45 years of age the opposite phenomenon occurs. Many of the unemployed counted by the SEPE in these age ranges do not count as unemployed for the EPA, which considers them inactive. Specifically, half of job seekers aged 45 or over registered in the SEPE are not registered as unemployed in the EPA. In this case, the incentive to register as unemployed at the SEPE offices is much greater, not in vain 47% of those over 45 years of age who are registered as job seekers receive a benefit.
