The OECD warns that the aging of the population will sink the occupation rate in Spain and recommend lengthening working life
The aging of the population is a shared problem by many developed countries with special incidence in Spain. In its report on employment perspectives published on Wednesday, the OECD calculates that the Iberian country will be the one that suffers The greatest fall in the occupation rate until 2060 because of an increasingly advanced citizenship. The organization based in Paris warns that this phenomenon will not only reduce the volume of workers in relation to the total population, but also stop economic growth and recommend delaying the exit of the labor market of older workers, as well as betting on immigration to gain labor.
The projections that the OECD manages suggest that The working age population will be reduced by 30% by 2060 in Spain. In this way, the result of low fertility and high life expectancy, the occupation rate is expected to reduce just over 10 percentage points between 2023 and 2060, which would mean the greatest fall between the OECD countries, well above the average descent of 2 points that are expected for the set of advanced economies. In parallel, the report predicts that the number of retirees for each person of working age will double in the next 35 years, from 0.34 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2060.
The OECD warns of the economic consequences of this demographic change, pointing out that with this scenario and, as long as the productivity level prior to the pandemic is maintained, GDP per capita would grow in Spain just 0.13% annual until 2060in the face of the average of 0.53% registered between 2006 and 2019. However, the body based in Paris clarifies that this downward projection “could be largely counteracted by mobilizing disappear resources, especially older people with good health, women and migrants.”
In that sense, the OECD points out that “promoting and facilitating that healthy workers remain longer in the labor market is essential” and calls to reduce the rate of older employees to 10% that leave the labor market. The international organism believes that reaching this goal would have a “appreciable” effect in Spain and would suffice to compensate for the planned decrease in GDP growth per inhabitant due to aging. In particular, concrete that In the Spanish case the greatest potential is to reduce the exit rate to the market of those over 65.
Likewise, the organization with Paris headquarters recommends Promote regular immigration to deal with labor shortages and gain workforce. This, added to the prolongation of working life among older workers and the mobilization of all infrautilized resources, could boost the annual growth of GDP per capita in Spain up to 0.73% in 2060, six tenths above the initial projection. However, it would remain insufficient to reach the OECD average, since a 0.9% growth is expected for all member countries. For Spain to reach that level, it would also be necessary to improve its productivity.
In a more immediate horizon, the OECD foresees that the national GDP maintains its growth in 2025, although with a more moderate advance than in the previous exercises. Specifically, For this year a 2.4%growth, accompanied by a decrease in the unemployment rate to 10.7%. The international organism recalls that unemployment remains one of the great challenges of Spain, since the country still has the highest unemployment rate between advanced economies, although it recognizes that the employment rate is at historical maximums – 66.5% in the first quarter of 2025 – and that the gap with the OECD average has been significantly reduced from the financial crisis – ten to 3.8 points.
In addition, the OECD adds that the aging of the population suffering from advanced economies is being accompanied by increasing intergenerational inequality. In Spain, people aged 55 to 64 have experienced an increase in their income faster than that of young people aged 25 to 34. Specifically, in 1995 the available income of young people was 1.3% higher than that of the older group, a trend that was invested at the beginning of the century, causing that In 2022 they were the people aged 55 to 64 who had income 5.6% higher than those of young people. The OECD thus points to the Baby Boomers They have enjoyed during the last three decades of an increase in their income significantly higher than that of subsequent generations and warns that, if there is no way to boost the income of younger generations, intergenerational inequality will continue to grow.
