When will the price of bitcoin come out of its boring lateralization?

Key facts:

There are 3 main factors that prevent bitcoin from rising in price.
At the end of the year, the parabolic phase of the bull run could arrive.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) remains in the lateral channel that has kept it “prisoner” for 3 months.

At the time of this publication, as can be seen in the CriptoNoticias Calculator, each BTC trades for around $65,700 on major exchanges.

In the following graph, provided by TradingView, the lateral channel referred to is evident:

Bitcoin price since March 2024 – Source: TradingView.

Today, June 20, could be a day of greater volatility than yesterday because Spot ETFs are operational again in the United States (yesterday was a non-working day in that country). Let us remember that ETFs are being the main force driving movements in the price of bitcoin in 2024.

Regardless, it seems unlikely that today’s volatility will be such as breaking bitcoin out of its sideways “prison.”

The Spanish analyst known on social networks as SantinoCripto shows that, If history repeats itself, BTC will have “several weeks of sideways market”. This influencer, who knows the financial market, assures:

“My theory is that we are a couple or three months away from starting the bull run, the most explosive phase of the bull market in bitcoin.”

SantinoCripto, trader and market analyst.

The trader accompanies his statement with a graph in which he observes What has been the behavior of bitcoin in previous bullish cycles?to project what could happen this year and, perhaps, at the beginning of 2025:

Projection for the price of bitcoin in the coming months, if history repeats itself. Source: SantinoCripto – X.

The fact of thinking that there would be 2 or 3 more months of boring sideways market is coincident with the market trend, which shows that Summer in the northern hemisphere is typically a slow period for many financial assets.. There is a popular saying in this world that says “sell in May and leave.” If this “rule” is fulfilled in 2024, then only in September would signs of a change in trend begin to be seen for bitcoin.

Strikingly, while bitcoin is maintaining its lateralization, the NASDAQ stock index (with which bitcoin is usually highly correlated) is setting all-time highs at the time of this publication, as can be seen in the following TradingView chart:

The Nasdaq index is at an all-time high – Source: TradingView.

Why isn’t bitcoin following the NASDAQ and setting new all-time highs? CriptoNoticias has shown that there are at least 3 factors that are preventing the rise of bitcoin.

One of them are the money outflows from bitcoin ETFs that have increased in the last week and they made a counterbalance that offset several days of positive capital flows.

Money flows to and from bitcoin ETFs – Source: SoSoValue.

Another bearish (or at least not bullish) factor is that the weakest miners are selling BTC to meet their expenses. These are the miners who have been most affected by the most recent bitcoin halving that halved the rewards received.

Rewards per block mined, halving after halving. Source: BitcoinSuisse.

The third is a potential factor and has to do with TerraformLabs (the bankrupt company behind the failed TERRA and LUNA protocols) could sell more than 65,000 bitcoin to pay fines to the US SEC. If I did this all at once, it would have some impact on the price of BTC.

Therefore, if there are no major changes in the bitcoiner news landscape (or in global macroeconomic dynamics) Bitcoin could be expected to continue within its lateral channel—with ups and downs but without leaving the range—perhaps for a couple more months..

Anyway, bitcoin is an expert at breaking predictions and, in the end, it does what it wants (or rather, what the market wants). For this reason, It is important that every investor stay informed with good sources of the events that move the market.in order to make the best decisions.