Why does the price of Bitcoin fall now and how will it continue?

In the last two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new historical maximum of USD 111,800. However, this enthusiasm was stopped and, at the time of this publication, trades around Deusd 103,000.

Bitcoin has broken a key support of USD 103,700 and could find a new firm floor in USD 95,600. This occurs in a context in which old BTC Hodlers are getting rid of their holdings. Now, the determination of investors that are maintained now faces a critical evidence.

To analyze the movements of buyers, the tool called Delta accumulated volume (CBD), which functions as a market radiography is usually used. This method shows at what price levels buyers have been more active in front of sellers, highlighting areas where demand has been especially strong.

The map analysis by the Glassnode firm reveals that Bitcoin’s rebound was built in several stages, with significant accumulations (large purchases) in the USD 81,000-USD 85,000 ranges, USD 93,000-USD 96,000 and USD 102,000-USD 104,000.

The following graph shows the market heat map and the most important ranges:

Currently, these areas are as solid foundations: if the price falls, they could act as support levels, that is, points where buyers They could re -stabilize the priceprovided the market maintains a positive mood.

This support on the USD 103,000 was fully identified by the Florian Florian Grummes financial market analyst, who assures – as cryptootics has reported it – that the setback that the digital currency has had in recent days has been “healthy”, since it precedes an increase that, in its opinion, It will take BTC over the USD 125,000 in the coming weeks.

However, from Glassnode they emphasize that the investors that bought at the beginning of 2025, when Bitcoin fell below USD 80,000, now face a challenge. The lateralize price, without a clear address, indicating that the initial impulse is losing strength.

Why don’t the price go up?

To understand why Bitcoin has not continued its promotion, it is necessary to look at the market from a broader perspective. From the lowest point of the cycle in June 2022, the CBD heat map shows an important change: the areas where investors bought large amounts of BTC (as bases that boosted the price) Now they have become areas where they are selling.

This means that those who bought at lower prices, especially in the ranges of USD 25,000-Usd 31,000 and USD 60,000-USD 73,000, They are taking advantage of relatively high prices to sell and obtain profits In Fíat money, as seen in this graph:

These sales create a pressure that makes Bitcoin difficult to rise, at least for now. Investors who bought at those lower levels and resisted periods of falls Now they see an opportunity to sell at close prices to the historical maximumwhich increases the supply of BTC in the market and brakes the ascent.

With this sales wave, there is a greater probability that the price of Bitcoin falls in the short term. This especially if an important event does not appearas positive news or an increase in adoption or institutional investment, which promotes new buyers.

Where does the price go, then?

To foresee where the price could be stabilized or to find obstacles, tools such as spent supplies distribution quantiles (SSD) are used. This metric examines the prices that investors bought their BTC and organize them in percentiles to identify key levels.

At the moment:

• The 0.95 quantile (which represents the upper 5% of the coins sold) is in USD 103,700, acting as the first support level. If the price falls below with enough force (which could be happening in the next few hours, perhaps), the following important support is in the quantile 0.85, in USD 95,600.
• If Bitcoin manages to overcome USD 114,800, he could indicate that buyers are recovering control and the price could continue to rise.

This graph shows the quantiles of distributing supplies spent from Bitcoin:

Another tool to determine this is the cost of the fork in the short term (STH), which shows the average price to which recent buyers (who have had Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins.

This level is at USD 97,100. If the price falls, a critical level is at USD 83,200, where there could be more sales if recent investors panic. On the other hand, overcome USD 114,800 It would be a renewed force signalaccording to Glassnode’s calculations.

They point it out:

“These three levels, USD 114,800, USD 97,100 and USD 83,200, now define the statistical limits of short -term feeling. A break over or below these thresholds will probably shape the next stage of the market management, indicating whether the impulse is returning or is fading.”

Glassnode, Bitcoin on-chain analysis company.

This graph shows the three key levels for the price of BTC in the short term:

If the projection occurs and BTC exceeds USD 114,800, A new key price could be the USD 118,000according to the Bitcoin market analyst, Willy Woo. He argues that “the strength of the digital asset market remains solid.”

In summary…

Bitcoin’s recent maximum in USD 111,800 has faced strong resistance Due to the sales of long -term investors that are taking profits. The areas where investors before enthusiastically bought, are now sources of sales pressure.

The intense sales activity, led by “veteran” investors, suggests that the market is at a critical moment. It could be consolidating for a new bullish impulse if more buyers appear (for example, if institutional investment continues strong), or could enter a deeper correction if the demand fails to absorb the supply.

The next weeks will be decisive to determine if BTC can recover its strength or if we are facing the beginning of a more bassist phase, Well, for Glassnode, “the market seems to be at a crossroads, molded by high sales pressure, a mature bullish impulse and a demand that must prove to be resistant.”