10 keys to understand the imminent crisis that comes according to Henrik Zeberg

Henrik Zeberg, an economist recognized for his projections contrary to consensus, turned on the alarms again. After successfully anticipating the rebound of the markets between 2023 and 2025 – when many expected a recession – now it issued their most forceful warning: a great financial crisis would be about to begin.

Based on its economic cycle model, Zeberg argues that the global economy has already collided with the “iceberg” collapse. Despite the apparent boom in stock markets, The signals that preceded the 2008 and 1929 crises are all presentas reported cryptootics.

Next, we present the 10 keys that summarize your vision of the economic storm that is coming.

1. The Titanic already crashed into the iceberg

Henrik Zeberg argues that the recession of 2025 is not only probable, but – according to him – inevitable. His economic cycle model, based on indicators and coincidents, shows that the critical threshold that historically precedes recessions has already crossed.

In graphic terms, it is as if the Titanic had already crashed with the iceberg: The damage is done, and the only thing left is to expect the ship to sink.

The main indicators, which incorporate signals such as construction permits, performance curves and new orders, has already collapsed. On the other hand, the coincident indicators (employment, industrial production and income) begin to retreat, confirming the general deterioration.

According to Zeberg, this pattern is repeated with surgical accuracy in all recessions for eight decades.

The following graph shows that the main indicator (red lines in the upper panel) fell below its critical baseline. And the matching indicator (red lines in the lower panel) follows its steps and it is likely to also fall below the limit. This, in the analyst’s words, indicates that the Titanic already collided with the iceberg.

2. The consumer, ignored by the Federal Reserve

The United States Federal Reserve (Fed), says Zeberg, is looking at the economy on the wrong side of the telescope. When concentrating exclusively on the low unemployment rate, it is ignoring the rapid deterioration of the consumer, who represents 70% of American GDP.

Consumer confidence surveys have collapsed at historically associated levels with recessions. Although unemployment remains low, Trust is at its lowest point in more than a decade.

Zeberg warns that, if households are discouraged by high prices, growing debts and few savings, the expense will inevitably fall. This will drag the economy as a whole. According to him, current signals, such as borrowing in loans and mortgages, indicate that the consumer is exhausted.

3. The real estate market flashes again in red

The real estate sector was the first problem indicator before the 2008 crisis. Today, that story is repeated. The confidence of housing builders has collapsed since its peak during the Covid-19 pandemic, falling to levels not seen since 2012.

The NAHB HMI index went from 80 points in 2021 to only 32 in June 2025. This abrupt fall has been, in previous cycles, A clear omen of serious economic problems. Whenever the index collapses, unemployment tends to shoot a few months later.

Zeberg points out that builders are offering aggressive discounts and cutting prices to attract buyers. This indicates that they anticipate a strong deceleration in demand. The activity in construction permits has also decreased dramatically.

4. Employment is cracked inside

Although official employment figures in the United States, the main world financial power, continue to show strength, second level data tell another story. Continuous unemployment subsidy applications have increased 60% since its cyclic minimum in 2022, an unequivocal sign of deterioration.

Zeberg emphasizes that this metric is key: when workers do not get employment quickly, it indicates that the labor market is losing traction. This trend preceded all recessions since the mid -twentieth century.

In addition, job offers have fallen from 11 million in 2022 to about 7 million. Temporary hiring, voluntary resignations and salary growth are also in descent. These are signs of a mature and decline work cycle.

5. The largest stock market bubble in history

The current assessments in stock markets, especially in the US, are at unprecedented levels. Zeberg compares the current situation with the peaks of 1929, 2000 and 2007, but warns that this time excesses are even greater.

The stock market capitalization of the United States today represents more than 200% of GDP, exceeding the “danger” threshold of 140% indicated by Warren Buffett. In parallel, the S&P 500 index presents a price/profits ratio close to 30, similar to that of the greatest historical roofs.

These levels are not only a sign of overvaluation, but of disconnection with the real economy. This product of the expansion of the money supply, which increased 755% after 2008, as seen in this graph:

The massive creation of money, combined with zero interest rates, artificially inflated assets such as actions, bonds, real estate and cryptocurrencies.

According to Zeberg, the only possible output of such a wide bubble is collapse. Or assets prices fall, or the value of money is collapsed through uncontrolled inflation. Both routes are painful.

6. MARKETS AND ECONOMY: A dangerous gap

Zeberg highlights one of the most disturbing current paradoxes: while financial markets celebrate with new maximums, the real economy weakens. This disconnection has never been so obvious or so prolonged.

For example, job offers fell sharply since 2022, but the S&P 500 continued to rise. Normally, these indicators move in parallel, So your current divergence is an alert signal.

Zeberg warns that this gap cannot be maintained indefinitely. Or the economy recovers miraculously (something unlikely) or the market will correctly correct towards reality. And the more the illusion lasts, the more violent the adjustment will be, he warned.

7. cryptocurrencies: the bubble of this decade

The cryptocurrency market, according to Zeberg, represents the speculative excess in its purest form. Memecoins without real utility reached valuations of tens of billions of dollars, such as Dogecoin (Doge) or Shiba Inu (SHIB).

In his analysis, Zeberg sees parallels with the fever of the “toxic” assets of 2006. At that time, the risk was hidden in opaque financial products. Today, in volatile tokens maintained only for speculative purposes.

The author warns that, if the cryptocurrency market collapses in synchrony with the stock market, it can have an amplifier effect. It will not cause the crisis, But it can act as an emotional trigger for the general panic.

8. Bitcoin: Structural risk for corporate finances

Bitcoin (BTC) has gone from being a marginal experiment to an asset class accepted by corporations, funds and even governments. But its high volatility makes it, according to the economist, a significant risk for those who have it in their balance.

Companies like Strategy have accumulated almost 600,000 BTC, even with debt. If the price falls 80%, the company could be insolvent, generating a possible domino effect.

Zeberg fears that this institutional adoption of BTC is a new systemic weak point. Not because the asset is wrong in itself, but because Its collapse can affect corporate balances, funds and general trust.

The author raises a scenario in which Bitcoin could climb to USD 150,000, followed by an abrupt fall. In that context, losses for exposed institutions would be huge and could trigger forced sales and more panic.

9. Technical signals point to a roof

From the technical analysis, Zeberg identifies multiple signs that the markets are in a process of end of the bullish cycle. The S&P 500 shows bearish divergences in indicators such as the Relative Force Index (RSI) and the convergence/divergence of the mobile average (MACD).

These divergences have already been seen before the 2000 and 2007 roofs. Although the price continues to rise, The internal force of the market decreases. This indicates that the upward trend is exhausting.

The current rebound is led by few technological actions, while the rest of the market is lagging behind. This lack of amplitude is another symptom of fatigue of the bullish cycle.

As can be seen in the following graph, the S&P 500 touched historical maximums this year, but the MACD and the RSI are in minimal:

10. What’s coming: Deflation, then stanflation

Zeberg foresees that the imminent crisis will begin with a deflationary collapse: asset price drop, credit collapse and freezing of spending. Something similar to what happened in 2008 or even in the 30s.

Central banks will respond with all their resources: feature cuts, quantitative expansion, mass fiscal stimuli. But this time, he warns, he could not function as before.

The big difference is that We are no longer in an era of structural disinflation. From 2020 the 40 -year -old inflation trend broke. Mass public spending and the lowest productive capacity could generate a new regime.

After deflation shock, a stage of stagflation could arise: rising prices, but weak growth. A combination especially difficult to control, both economically and politically.

Zeberg’s final message is clear: the emperor – the economy and markets – is naked. The illusion of prosperity will crumble. And when the crowd finally see it, it will be too late to run towards the exit. Better cover yourself now.