2026 will demand more from conservative investors to beat inflation

The feeling is deceptive. After two years in which liquidity paid again, fixed income stopped being a punishment and conservative profiles recovered something as basic as visibility, many investors face 2026 with the impression that the worst is over. However, the first moments of the new year and the messages that come from investment banks and management companies paint a more nuanced scenario: not a bad year, but one more demanding for those looking for profitability without problems.

Ribbon at 2.5%

During 2025, the instruments most used by conservative savers such as Treasury bills, monetary funds and short-term fixed income moved within profitability ranges close to 2%–2.5%, depending on the vehicle and the time of year. It was a unusually favorable environment for prudent profiles if compared to the previous decade, marked by rates close to zero or negative and clearly negative real returns.

The turning point comes now. At the end of 2025 and at the beginning of 2026, the 10-year Spanish bond was once again above 3.3%, levels not seen since the beginning of December. This movement is especially relevant because the ten-year index acts as the central reference of the domestic fixed income market. From that level onwards, short-term assets are revalued, credit spreads are adjusted and the convenience of extending maturities to obtain a few additional tenths is once again questioned.

The behavior of the Spanish ten-year-old occurs in a context of widespread falls in European debt prices at the beginning of the year. The German bund, although with a more contained rebound, is approaching levels close to 2.9%, while the bonds of peripheral countries such as Italy and France are moving above 3.5%. This differential once again places the focus on risk premiums and fiscal sustainability within the eurozone.

At the short end of the curve, the adjustment has been more gradual. Twelve-month Treasury bills have stabilized their profitability slightly above 2%, after several months of very moderate declines. At the same time, the twelve-month Euribor went from setting lows around 2.07% during the summer to closing December around 2.27%, reflecting that the market has softened its expectations of rapid and continued cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

This environment fits with the diagnosis of Goldman Sachs, which in its fixed income forecast for 2026 indicates that a significant part of the favorable rate adjustment is already incorporated in the short sections of the curve. The bank emphasizes that the base scenario remains constructive for defensive assets, but with less tailwind than in 2024 and 2025, which reduce the margin to obtain additional profitability without assuming more risk.

A similar vision appears in the central stages of Deutsche Bank. The German bank anticipates a moderate extension of monetary flexibility in the United States and Europe with the exception of Japan, in an environment of more contained inflation. This framework would allow some additional relaxation of returns, although unevenly depending on geographies and maturities, increasing the importance of selection and the combination of liquidity, duration and credit quality.

Insufficient returns in the face of inflation

Inflation continues to be the main friction factor. In Spain, the CPI closed 2025 at around 2.9%, clearly above the ECB’s objective. For 2026, forecasts point to levels closer to 2%, supported by the excess supply in the crude oil market identified by the International Energy Agency, the possible partial normalization of energy flows if sanctions on Russia are reduced and the productivity improvements associated with the implementation of technologies based on artificial intelligence. Still, with conservative assets offering nominal returns close to 2.5%–3%the real margin remains small.

Morningstar summarizes this scenario by pointing out that conservative fixed income in 2026 should offer positive returns, but with difficulty in generating high real returns without increasing the level of risk. A reading that coincides with the consensus expressed in managers’ meetings at the end of 2025, where it was insisted that The new exercise will require greater control even in the most defensive segments.

From the perspective of wealth management, Mar Barrero, director of analysis at Arquia Banca, emphasizes that the main adjustment for 2026 is not about abandoning instruments such as bills or monetary instruments, but rather about avoiding excessive concentration in a single type of asset. After a year in which different markets alternated leadership, the priority is once again balancing weights between European and US equities and, in fixed income, diversifying without significantly lengthening durations. The objective of the defensive block, remember, remains preserve capital and provide stability.

This approach coincides with that of Nacho Zarza, an analyst at Auriga Bonos. For Zarza, the behavior of the 10-year Spanish bond and the stabilization of the bills reflect an environment still conditioned by external factors difficult to anticipatesuch as geopolitical tensions or the evolution of fiscal policies in the main economies. In this context, it maintains its preference for high-quality assets, with short or medium maturities, which allow it to absorb episodes of volatility without compromising the liquidity of the portfolio.

Zarza also warns that the main risks for fixed income in 2026 do not necessarily come from widely discounted scenarios, but from unexpected events, such as abrupt resolutions of geopolitical conflicts or an unforeseen rebound in inflation expectations, with an impact on both the long and short sections of the curve.