Arthur Hayes: Treasury bonds are “dog shit” and Bitcoin’s mathematics to USD $ 1M in 2028

By Canuto

Arthur Hayes, in his talk entitled “Mathematics behind a Bitcoin to USD $ 1 million by 2028”, warned about an imminent money printing wave by the US government. UU. Which will far exceed the levels seen during the pandemic. In addition, the well -known Bitmex co -founder offered a scathing perspective on American treasure bonds, qualifying them as suboptimal investments compared to shares, gold and, especially, Bitcoin.

***

• Arthur Hayes predicts a massive monetary impression between now and 2028, which will dwarf the stimuli of the Covid era.
• According to Hayes, the US Treasury bonds are “difficult to sell” and with significantly lower performance than Nasdaq, Gold and Bitcoin since 2017.
• The US government, according to the analysis, faces the challenge of financing a growing deficit, resorting to “growth” strategies by expanding credit.

---

In the recent Bitcoin 2025 financial conference, Arthur Hayes, co -founder of Bitmex and a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space, offered a forceful perspective during his talk entitled “The mathematics behind a Bitcoin to USD $ 1 million by 2028”.

Hayes argued that the world is heading towards an unprecedented money print period by the United States, which will dwarf the measures taken during the Covid-19 crisis between 2020 and 2022.

This bold prognosis, which suggests a large -scale monetary expansion, is based, according to Hayes, on the growing and pressing need of the United States government to finance its operations and a constantly increased public debt.

The analyst, known for his acute already provocative observations on markets and global macroeconomy, emphasized that the current situation presents unique challenges for economic stability.

Hayes stressed that, although the impression of money seems to be a tool that will be inevitably resorted to, he clarified that “it will be a bit different this time.”

Although it did not delve into all the details of these anticipated differences during the analyzed extract, the central message of its presentation was unequivocal: the magnitude of the monetary expansion that is projected for the period until 2028 will be substantially greater than what is recently experienced, which could have deep implications for inflation and the value of fiduciary currencies, a central theme in its thesis on the future price of Bitcoin.

The difficult sale of treasure bonds according to Hayes

A considerable and central part of the presentation of Arthur Hayes was dedicated to The problem inherent in US Treasury Bonds In the current economic climate.

The Bitmex co -founder did not hesitate to describe them as “terrible” investments, and to emphasize their point, he compared the task of selling these debt instruments with the attempt to market “Dog shit”

This raw and direct analogy, characteristic of Hayes’s style, seeks to underline the extreme difficulty facing the US government to find buyers willing to acquire their debt, especially in a market where investors are increasingly skeptical and aware of the risks.

To vividly illustrate this challenge, Hayes turned to an ingenious film metaphor.

Hayes compared the Secretary of the Treasury (Implicit in the description, although he referred to a “new sales leader”, Scott Besent) With a used car selleror more specifically, with the persistent vendors of the movie “Glengarry Glen Ross”, whose mantra is “ABC: Always Be Closing” (always being closing).

According to this critical interpretation, the main function of this senior official is none other than persuading investors, almost at any cost, of buying government bonds, despite their lean and disappointing recent historical performance compared to other investment alternatives.

The analysis presented by Hayes firmly relied on comparative data and graphics that put in perspective the performance of treasure bonds against other key asset classes since 2017.

According to the information deployed, The US Treasury Debt offer. UU. It has experienced an approximate increase of 80% since that date.

In a marked contrast, the Nasdaq 100 stock index has exceeded bond performance in a similar figure, approximately 80%.

A parallel narrative is observed when comparing bonds with gold, a traditional refuge asset. The precious metal has also offered investors a higher performance in about 80% compared to what they had obtained maintaining treasure bonds during the same period.

However, the most overwhelming and dramatic comparison in the Hayes exhibition occurred when facing Bitcoin bonds.

The speaker struggled that an investment strategy that had privileged Bitcoin instead of treasure bonds since 2017 would have resulted in higher performance in an amazing 99%.

“Although you win money with the bonds for the coupon they pay,” said Hayes, “”You will earn much more money by investing in other things. The primary objective of the investment is to maximize the amount of money that you want given the current circumstances, and clearly, possessing government bonds is not a great operation at this time. ”

This harsh reality argued, converts the task of selling bonds into an increasingly arduous and complex challenge for financial authorities.

The deficit dilemma and the commitment to “growth”

The backdrop of this complex financial situation, as described by Arthur Hayes, is the persistent and, in fact, growing fiscal deficit facing the United States. Despite the frequent political rhetoric that advocates the prevailing need to control public spending and restore fiscal discipline, official figures paint a very different and worrying panorama.

According to recent data published by the Peterson Institute (They cover until March of the current fiscal year, which begins in October), and cited in the presentation, the expenditure projected for fiscal year 2025 is already in a trajectory that exceeds the levels of 2024, a year that in itself had already established an record in terms of deficit.

This trend suggests a lack of effective containment of government spending.

Hayes mentioned the efforts that were failed to implement significant reductions in the deficit.

He alluded to the Doge government efficiency department, who tried to lead this austerity initiative but, according to have “disappeared” from the public focus because the reduction of spending “is a bad policy.”

“Every dollar spent the government goes to the pocket of another person or company,” explained the analyst, “so the mass cuts are politically unpopular and extremely difficult to implement without facing strong resistance.”

Given the apparent inability or lack of political will to reduce spending significantly, the strategy that the administration seems to be adopting, as can be seen from the analysis of Scott Besent cited by Hayes, is a strong commitment to economic “growth”.

In theory, this implies that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country grows at a pace that exceeds the cost of the interests generated by the accumulated debt.

However, Hayes warned that this objective is “very difficult to make unless you increase the amount of credit in the economy”, suggesting that such growth may not be organic but promoted by more debt.

To contextualize this approach, the Bitmex co -founder shared his personal experience having lived in China, where he observed that “GDP or growth is just a result of the amount of credit you want or decide to put in the economy.”

This international comparison suggests that the United States could be heading towards an economic model where credit expansion becomes the main tool to manage a debt load that many consider unsustainable.

This strategy inevitably leads to greater impression of money and subsequent risk of devaluation of currency and inflationary pressures. Although the extract of the Hayes talk was interrupted before a definitive conclusion, the delineated trajectory points to turbulent economic times for traditional finances and, consistently with the title of its talk, a potentially favorable panorama for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

---

Original image of Diariobitcoin, created with artificial intelligence, for free use, licensed under public domain.

This article was written by an AI content editor and reviewed by a human editor to guarantee quality and precision.

WARNING: Diariobitcoin offers informative and educational content on various topics, including cryptocurrencies, AI, technology and regulations. We do not provide financial advice. Cryptactive investments are high risk and may not be adequate for all. Investigate, consult an expert and verify the applicable legislation before investing. I could lose all its capital.