Bitcoin begins its historically weaker month struggling to resume the USD $ 109,000

By Hannah Pérez

September tests Bitcoin. After closing a negative August, the distinguished cryptocurrency extends the losses at the beginning of the month below the USD $ 109,000. Macro factors add to historically weak seasonality.

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• September tests Bitcoin: Price falls to USD $ 108,500 after negative closure in August.
• Bitcoin has closed September in red in 9 of the last 12 years, according to data.
• Merchants are attentive to the decision on the interest rates of the Fed this month.
• The publication of labor data in the US. This week could also affect prices.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Starts September, historically its most bearish month, facing a battle to recover the level of USD $ 109,000 after a significant fall from its historical maximum of USD $ 124,000 reached on August 14.

The cryptocurrency market has lost impulse in recent weeks, partly influenced by global macroeconomic uncertainty and key economic data in the United States.

Last Friday, the publication of the Personal Consumer Expenses Index (PCE) showed a underlying inflation of 2.9% in July, in line with expectations, but greater than 2.6% in June, marking the highest annual rate since February, as reported CNBC. This data intensified the bearish feeling among cryptocurrency investors, since the expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its meeting of September 16 and 17 have weakened.

“The markets extended their correction after the publication of the PCE, since a persistently high inflation reduced the hopes of a rate cut in SeptemberE ”, explained Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Researchin a comment cited by The Block.

Attention with the USD $ 100K bitcoin level

The pricing action of Bitcoin It reflects market volatility. On Monday, the cryptocurrency touched a minimum of USD $ 107,295 in the early hours before a brief rebound above USD $ 109,800, although it failed to stay at that level.

According to Vincent Liu, cio de Kronos Researchhe key psychological support of Bitcoin It is at USD $ 100,000. However, “A rupture of this level could trigger a broader liquidity crisis“, Liu has warned, highlighting the fragility of the market in the face of the emergence of the leveraged positions of Bitcoin.

Other cryptocurrencies have also felt pressure. In the last 24 hours, Ether It has fallen almost 4% to USD $ 4,317, XRP lost 2.9% to USD $ 2.73, and Solarium receded 3.6% to USD $ 198, according to data from Coingcko.

September, a historically challenging month

Beyond the macro factors, September has been historically complicated for Bitcoin.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed September in red in eight of the last twelve yearsaccording to historical data of Coinglass. Significant falls, such as 13% in 2019 and 19% in 2014, highlight this month’s bassist trend. Even in bullish cycles, the average returns of Bitcoin In September they have been negative, with an average drop of 3%.

September historically has been a month of consolidation or correction for Bitcoineven in upward markets, as we previously highlighted in an analysis that analyzes the perspective for the market towards the end of 2025. Weakness is usually followed by a rebound in October, which has historically translated into average gains of 80% for BTC in the last quarter of the year.

For now, in immediate terms, this trend, combined with current macro uncertainty, keeps cautious investors.

Upcoming catalysts: labor data and Fed decision

The operators are now attentive to the report of non -agricultural payroll (NFP) this week, which could offer clues about the address of Fed’s interest rates. “A surprisingly strong work growth could further press risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, while weaker data could boost demand“Liu said.

Despite recent inflation data, the tool Fedwatch of CME Group It still indicates a probability of 87.6% of a rate cut of 25 basic points at the next FOMC meeting –The policy formulators of the US Central Bank. This event will be crucial to determine if Bitcoin You can recover land or if you will face greater corrections.

Bitcoin is under USD $ 109,000

As Bitcoin Fight to stay above USD $ 108,000, analysts warn that the combination of macroeconomic factors and the bassist seasonality of September could prolong correction. A continuation of the capital outputs among the funds listed on the stock market (ETF) of Bitcoin In cash they could also help press down prices.

However, there are operators who see opportunities in volatility. Yeah Bitcoin manages to stay above the USD $ 100,000, we could see a rebound towards the end of the month, especially if the economic data is positively surprised, a report of COINDESK which also analyzes the seasonal and macro conditions that influence the market.

For now, the crypto market remains in a state of caution, with investors evaluating both macro risks and internal dynamics. September, faithful to his reputation, promises to be a month of challenges to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

At the close of this edition, the price of Bitcoin It is at USD $ 108,500, reflecting a 0.2% drop in the last 24 hours and a 12.5% ​​correction since its August peak, according to data from Coingcko.

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Article written with the help of AI, edited by Diariobitcoin

Edited image of Unspash

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