Egg producers estimate that the supply will take between 6 months and a year to normalize after the impact of the avian flu and will further strain prices.

Avian flu, which has been reported since July 14 outbreaks in Spanish farms (half of them in Castilla y Léon) out of a total of 139 outbreaks throughout Europe, is having a significant impact on the poultry census. In a joint statement, the Spanish Federation of Companies in the Egg and Egg Products Production Sector (FEDEROVO) and the Spanish Association of Egg Producers (ASEPRHU) They warn that “the supply will take between 6 months and a year to normalize, the time necessary for farms to progressively recover both economically and emotionally.” Both employers’ associations warn that, to date, “5% of the census” has had to be sacrificed and that this “reduces supply and puts pressure on prices.” Specifically, they estimate in the sector, the loss of poultry exceeds 2.5 million . The total census of laying hens in Spain was 50.8 million at the end of last year.

Sources from Asaja, consulted by this medium, agree that “supply has been affected” by this virus whose incidence in humans is low and explain that “with a lower census (of laying hens) there will be less product.” From this agrarian organization they add that “filling the health gaps (the culling of all birds on farms with cases of avian flu) takes time.” The first thing, they add, is the period of time (or ‘quarantine’) that farms have to endure before recover its productive capacity and how long it takes for compensation from public administrations to arrive. “The period of time proposed by FEDEROVO AND ASEPRHU It even seems short to us in some cases”, they point out from Asaja. In this agricultural organization they reason that, after being impacted by the virus, “the rancher has to see if it compensates him reinvest in the reconditioning of your farm to recover the level of production prior to the sanitary emptying.” Regarding the escalation of prices, these sources point to “lack of supply” as one of the factors.

Asaja sources point out that “filling the sanitary gaps (the sacrifice of all birds on farms with cases of avian flu) takes time” and cite the period of time (or quarantine) that the farms have to endure before recovering their productive capacity.

‘Multifactorial’ prices

The FEDEROVO and ASEPRHU employers’ associations talk about a “multi-factor” price evolution and, to the impact of the avian flu, they add the restructuring in which the sector is immersed “which voluntarily advances in the transition to alternative systems (free-range, organic and released in the chicken coop)”. Which, they add, requires “new investments and infrastructure” as well as facing “delays in licenses, increased costs.” In parallel, both associations highlight that a positive trend of the last 5 years is consolidated in egg consumption at home. A variable that has increased by 17% since 2019.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s ‘2024 Food Consumption Report’, families purchased 2.9% more eggs in terms of volume. On average, each Spaniard consumed around 8.95 kilos of eggs annually, this is 1.6% more than in 2023. The average expenditure per person, at the end of last year, amounted to 28.88 euros, increasing in the same proportion. Both associations believe that “the egg has positioned itself as one of the foods best valued by Spanish consumers” and they emphasize that we are facing “one of the reference proteins in the diet of our country, very aligned with the trends of healthy eating and ‘real food’.”

A rise in prices, under magnifying glass

Consumer organizations such as FACUA criticize the rising egg prices in recent months. In their latest monthly study, presented this week, they concluded that, along with sunflower and olive oil, they were the foods for which the VAT was reduced that would have become most expensive on supermarket shelves. Specifically, the dozen medium eggs It would have become more expensive by 2.6% on average in recent weeks. If the last 12 months are taken as a reference, medium eggs would have increased by 34% on average, being the food that has increased its value the most.

“The elements behind the rise in egg prices in the last year are not linked to avian flu,” says Miguel Ángel Serrano (FACUA), who asks the Ministry of Agriculture to intervene.

The vice president of FACUA, Miguel Ángel Serrano, believes that “the elements behind the rise in egg prices in the last year are not linked to avian flu”. A phenomenon that, in his opinion, is quite recent. Serrano points to the value chain and demands that “the Department of agriculture Take action and inspect to see if the increases are justified or not. Or rather they respond to speculation.” The FACUA representative points to the intermediate segments between the producer and the consumer. A thesis similar to that maintained yesterday by the Minister of Agriculture Luis Planas during a visit to Mercavalencia: “The evolution of prices in the egg market does not come from now, but has been occurring progressively since 2021, the same has happened, even with higher numbers, in other countries of the European Union,” he noted.

‘Number one’ priority: the national market

FEDEROVO and ASEPRHU assure that the sector is focused on “maintain balance – demand“, the quality of the product and the security of supply, with reinforced biosecurity and coordination with the authorities.” For the associations that represent the producers, the priority is now on “guarantee national supply.” Along these lines, they explain, Spain is self-sufficient since its production covers 120% of the needs of the national market. This means that about 20% of eggs are exportedespecially to countries of the European Union (EU), “which allows exports to be temporarily adjusted to prioritize the internal market when there are tensions.”

Both employers see Spain as “a front at national and international level quality and food safety.” A line very similar to what Planas stated yesterday: “Spanish production is 120% of the national need,” he assures, denying any risk of shortages despite the fact that production only increased by 0.4% last year compared to a much higher consumption (+3%). Planas concluded that “We are the third largest producer in the European Union (EU). “We have 14.4% of European production, and we even have the possibility of exporting to third countries.”