Solana ETFs will hit the market but will see moderate capital flows, JPMorgan anticipates
By Angel Di Matteo @shadowargel
In its most recent report, the bank claims to have no doubt that ETFs Solarium in cash will be approved by the SEC. However, it warns interested parties that these products will most likely record lower flows than those seen by funds based on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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- Analysts estimate receipts could reach $1.5 billion in the first year.
- The SEC will decide this month on almost 16 applications for crypto ETFs.
- Enthusiasm could be limited by lower institutional demand and market fatigue.
The US-based international bank, JPMorgan, presented an interesting read on Solana (SUN) facing the possible arrival of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the coming weeks, arguing that although there are many expectations in the crypto market for these products, perhaps it should be moderated a little given that capital flows may not be as high as many expect.
According to a bank report, reviewed by The Block ETFs Solarium They will probably receive the green light this month from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)but will attract much lower investment volumes than those seen in products based on Bitcoin either Ethereum.
Imminent decision of the SEC
The SEC evaluates close to 16 cryptocurrency spot ETF applicationsincluding those linked to Solana and XRP. In recent weeks, the agency adopted a simpler process by establishing generic listing standardseliminating the need to submit token-specific requests. This measure has fueled a new wave of crypto fund proposals.
He final deadline to decide on the Solana ETFs expires October 10and approval is considered highly probable.
The report, led by the general director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglouhighlights that the existence of futures of Solarium listed in the CME strengthens the chances of approval. Also, remember that the first ETF based on said digital currency was released in July by REX Ospreyregistered under the Investment Company Act of 1940unlike the majority of current applications, which are covered by the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934.
Market signals and parallels with Grayscale
The analysts of JPMorgan They emphasize that optimism for eventual approval is already reflected in the premium of the grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) versus its net asset value.
This premium has plummeted since more than 750% last year until almost zero currently, replicating the pattern previously observed in the funds of Grayscale based on Bitcoin and Ethereum before their conversion into the ETFs that currently operate on the market.
“Recent movements suggest that the market has already priced in a good part of approval expectations”explains the report, alluding to a scenario of institutional maturation and lower retail speculation.
Flow estimates and comparison with Ethereum
Although approval seems certain, JPMorgan anticipates a limited demand. According to their calculations, the ETFs Solarium could register around $1.5 billion in net inflows in first yearwhich represents approximately one seventh of what was raised by funds based on Ethereum in the same period.
The projection is based on the initial ETF flows REX Osprey Solana, which already accumulates close to USD $350 million since its launch, in front of the USD $2.3 billion that ETFs Ethereum (not including Grayscale) received in just three months.
The report adds that, applying the proportion between the total value locked (TVL) in Solana DeFi against Ethereum, you get a ratio of 1 to 7consistent with the inflow forecast.
Market risks and skepticism
Despite expectations, analysts warn that real flows could fall below even those figures. Among the reasons they mention the weaker perception of Solarium As a smart contract platform, the drop in active addresses since November 2024 and the memecoin trading predominance on the network.
They also point out the investor fatigue Given the succession of spot ETF launches, competition from diversified crypto indicesthe emergence of corporate treasury products with performance and one reduced demand in futures Solarium marketed in CME.
Divergent projections within JPMorgan
Interestingly, this analysis contrasts with a previous estimate prepared by another team at the same bank, led by Kenneth B. Worthingtonwhich projected between USD $2.7 billion and USD $5.2 billion in net flows during the first 6 to 12 months after approval.
The difference illustrates the uncertainty around institutional traction of Solarium facing giants like Ethereum and Bitcoinalthough his DeFi and real-world asset (RWA) token ecosystem continues to show signs of technological innovation.
In any case, the launch of ETF Solarium would represent another step towards the consolidation of digital assets in regulated marketsmarking a new stage for investors seeking diversified exposure to Blockchain beyond the main cryptocurrencies.
Article written with the help of an AI content writer, edited by Angel Di Matteo / DailyBitcoin
Original image from DiarioBitcoin, created with artificial intelligence, free to use, licensed under Public Domain.
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