SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic… large IPOs test the liquidity of the technology market

The largest IPOs planned for 2026 are concentrated in three names that already weigh more than many national markets. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic They arrive on the stock market with private valuations that collectively exceed one and a half billion dollars. None of them have ever listed. All have raised capital in a protected environment. The listing comes just when the market is beginning to question the price of technology and artificial intelligence (AI). A historic debut at the worst possible time?

Unprecedented valuations outside the market

The numbers explain the magnitude of the challenge. OpenAI is currently valued around 500 billion dollars and negotiates a new round of financing that could place it above 750,000 million. SpaceX finalizes secondary operations that raise its valuation to 800 billion dollars. Anthropicfor its part, aspires to overcome the 300,000 million in its next capital increase. Three private companies that, if listed today, would be among the largest in the world.

These figures take on another dimension when compared to the recent IPO market. In the first nine months of 2025, IPOs in the United States raised just over 30 billion dollars. Even one of these operations would far exceed that volume. SpaceX, if it goes on the market in the ranges it manages, would exceed the 29,000 million raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019, so far the largest IPO in history. But beyond size, the main risk is not valuation, but the real capacity of the market to absorb operations of this magnitude.

Risk of lack of liquidity

In its reports on the absorption capacity of the primary market, Morgan Stanley warns that individual transactions exceeding $20-25 billion concentrate systemic liquidity risk, especially when several coincide in the same exercise. An IPO that aspires to raise more than $25 billion is not only looking for demand. It absorbs liquidity that would otherwise go into large listed securities or debt. For many managers, participating means selling other positions. The impact is transferred to the entire market, not just the debutant value.

Future IPOs also come with cost structures typical of mature companies. SpaceX employs more than 13,000 people and maintains an annual investment rate of tens of billions for the development of Starship and the expansion of starlink. OpenAI has multiplied its operating expenses in less than three years to sustain its infrastructure of models and data centers. Anthropic follows a similar path with a strong dependence on external capital. Bain & Company identifies this profile as one of the main risk factors in large IPOs, especially in environments where the cost of capital is no longer exceptionally low.

He context is not the ideal. In recent months, several companies linked to the infrastructure of the AI have suffered relevant corrections in the stock market. Oracle and Broadcom, two leaders in the sector, have experienced sharp declines despite maintaining revenue growth. The trigger has not been the activity, but the perception that the volume of investment necessary to sustain this growth may take longer than expected to translate into profits.

Therefore, the The market has begun to put figures to that doubt. Global investment in data centers and computing capacity linked to AI It exceeded $300 billion in 2025. Operating margins, however, have been compressed in many cases due to the increase in energy and financing costs. The debate no longer revolves around technological potential, but rather the return on invested capital.

The calendar also adds pressure. Several of these operations could coincide in the same year, even in dates nearby. The market cannot frictionlessly absorb multiple exits of this size. Competition for capital will be real and will force prioritization. Not all of them will be able to set optimal conditions at the same time.

Lastly, the macro environment also does not offer great security. Although the cycle of rate increases is behind us, the cost of money remains high compared to the previous decade. Valuations are no longer based on an almost zero discount of future flows. Every point of margin and every growth forecast counts more than ever. Companies of this size need sustained trading volume to avoid price distortions. The degree of participation of passive funds and their weight in the indices will mark part of this dynamic and that of the market as a whole.