The managers rule out an AI bubble, but warn that if it occurs it will be larger than the ‘dotcom’ bubble

General consensus among managers: they do not see a bubble in the Stock Market Artificial Intelligence (AI) but, if it occurs, its effects will be greater than those that occurred in 2001 as a consequence of the ‘dot.com’ crash. The last one to join has been Natixisfrom which they warn of the existence of a high sectoral concentration, which has led the French firm to include it in its list of risks for 2026, as explained by the director of analysis for Spain and Latin America, Carmen Oldsduring the presentation of the annual forecasts.

The statements are made in the midst of the collapse experienced by Oracle. The American technology has plummeted during the day more than 13% after the publication of the semi-annual results, which have been lower than expected by the market. Specifically, the company posted revenues of $16.06 billion in its first fiscal quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, below the consensus of analysts, who expected around $16.21 billion, while the net profit attributed has fallen 7%, to 2.9 billion dollars. The lower profits are due to an increase in operating expenses and investments in cloud infrastructure and AI-related services.

This corrective has set off alarms in the market, which is beginning to question the profitability of this technology, which has been shown in greater volatility, despite the fact that asset management titans like BlackRock completely banish the idea that the sector is overvalued. In fact, the sales manager of BlackRockJavier García Díaz has explained that one of his favorite markets for 2026 is the United States, specifically, equities with exposure to companies that are going to develop AI. His defense is based on expectation that the investment necessary for its development ranges between five and eight billion dollars in the next five years.

Added to this positioning are DWS, Santalucía AM, Santander AM, Renta 4…The list of those who see AI as a safe bet for next year is long. Deutsche Bank also appears there, from which they reaffirm that everything related to this sector will continue to dominate as a trend in 2026 and that it should not be lost sight of on the stock market. The debate occurs in the heat of the ratings that the magnificent seven have achieved on the trading floor, that is, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

This group of companies concentrates 35% of the market capitalization within the S&P500, compared to 20% in November 2022. The concern surrounding its fall lies in the impact that a major correction would have on the stock markets and the economy and the threat that it would cause a carry-over effect. These seven values ​​have become a lynchpin for other technology companies, whose share in the capitalization of the market already represents 15%.

A report prepared by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) explains the reasons why the scenario is not the same as in 2001, arguing that These companies have given “very good” results unlike then, whose profits did not rise at the same rate. “The situation is different from that of the late 1990s, which was largely driven by overly optimistic expectations, that were not supported by growth at this point, the question is whether the figures will be sustainable and whether investments in infrastructure, especially in data centers, are justified in the long term.