The Spanish autonomous communities most exposed to Trump’s tariffs

The Basque Country is the region most exposed to United States tariffs on European products compared to its GDP, since exports to that country represent 3.1% of its production, according to an analysis prepared by CaixaBank Research and released this week.

According to this analysis, Spanish exports to the United States are concentrated in a few autonomous communities. Nearly 80% come from five regions: Basque Country, Madrid, Valencian Community, Andalusia and, above all, Catalonia, which brings together almost a quarter of the total.

Specifically, Catalonia totals 23.9% of exports, Andalusia 17.3%, Valencian Community 15.7%, Madrid 11.8% and Basque Country 11%. At the opposite extreme are La Rioja, Cantabria, Extremadura and the two archipelagos, with less than 1% each.

In the study carried out by CaixaBank Research It analyzes which goods in each region would be most vulnerable to tariffs and it does so based on its relevance – the weight of the exports of each good over the total exported by the autonomous community – and its dependence – the weight of the exports of each good that goes to the US market over the total exported.

In this analysis it is seen that the Export of oils and fats from Andalusia accounts for 13% of the region’s exports and directs 19.2% of its foreign sales to the United States. Fuel exports to the United States are also of great importance in Andalusia. Specifically, they have a relevance of 14.7% of exports and a dependence on the United States of 12.4%.

The drinks, for their part, have certain relevance in the relevance-dependence ratio for La Rioja. Specifically, they represent 13.8% of exports and the United States totals 16.8% of its sales of this product. Another important segment is machines and mechanical devices in the case of the Basque Country, as they account for 15.6% of the region’s exports and 12.8% of exports that go to the United States.

Likewise, the study analyzes the products in each autonomous community in which the eExports to the US are very important but little in relation to the region’s exports. For example, in the case of Andalusia, it exports 54.7% of its stone and plaster manufactures, but this sector only represents 1.4% of its total exports. The United States is also of great relevance for exports of the organic chemical sector of Asturias, but they only represent 1.2% of Asturian exports.

Remarkable resilience

Finally, the study indicates that, despite the increase in US tariffs, the Spanish economy and its export sector are showing “remarkable resilience.” “Spain’s global exposure to the United States is limited and, although there are differences between autonomous communities and sectors, no region faces significant systemic risks,” says the report, which points out that “geographical and sectoral diversification” allows the aggregate impact to be moderate.

This, according to the study, reinforces the adaptation capacity of Spanish companies in the face of “complex international scenarios.” “Besides, The strength and flexibility of the national export fabric offer a solid foundation to continue growing and diversifying into global markets, even in contexts of greater protectionism,” states the report.