Banco Sabadell and BBVA open with increases in the stock market in the week in which the result of the takeover bid will be known
Banco Sabadell rose more than 0.8% at the opening of the markets, up to 3.2 euros per share, after the deadline to accept BBVA’s takeover bid expired on Friday, the result of which will be known next Friday. The price of the Vallesano is in line with that of his ‘opado’, which opens with an advance of 0.5% and stands at 15.86 euros. In this way, the correlation between both entities stands at 2.6%slightly below the 3% with which it closed last week.
While waiting to know the result, among the possible scenarios the possibility of reaching between 30 and 50% is contemplated, which would lead the bank Basque origin to launch a second takeover bid entirely in cash. For now, BBVA maintains the threshold for it to go ahead at 50.01% of the voting rights. Among the main shareholders, it is known that BlackRock will attend with the 0.5% stake in active management that it has in Catalan. Although the largest asset manager in the world It is the main shareholder of the bank with more than 7.4%, the bulk of it is controlled through passive funds, which limits its room for maneuver in an operation as uncertain as the current one.
Instead, Zurich Insuranceits second largest shareholder, has maintained its rejection of it, considering that its proposal is not “attractive beyond the perspectives of the entity itself.” The company, which owns around 5% of the shares, is considered by the team led by Josep Oliu as a strategic partnersince it distributes its insurance products in Spain through a joint venture with the bank. The intention of BBVA goes through breaking these alliances once complete the operation. On the contrary, David Martínez, the largest individual shareholder and third largest investor, has attended the offer with 3.8% of its capital. A guarantee that has been considered as a lever to encourage other investors to join.
Although Sabadell has its sights set on retailers, who represent a relevant part of its shareholding with 40%the focus is on institutional investors, who can be decisive when it comes to tipping the balance in favor of Carlos Torres with a weight of 30%. In an interview with ‘La Información Económica’, the manager has assured that up to a total of 18 large funds support the plan to create the second largest banking group in Spain. BBVA has that 30%, to which another 10% would be added coming from passive funds, which would come with half of their capital. With these figures, the expectation is to reach between 50 and 60% acceptance.
The share exchange is stipulated at 1 share for every 4.8376 Sabadell shares, valuing the entity at a rate of 3.39 euros, with a 10% improvement compared to the initial price. The Sabadell leadership has argued throughout these 17 months of battle that this price “undervalues” its growth potential by 26%, so the price increase should have been between 30 or 40%. In this regard, he is less confident with the success of the takeover bid, expecting a threshold of around 30%.
