When will Bitcoin get to the maximum of this cycle? Gold gives signals

Is Bitcoin (BTC) to the maximum cycle or is there even more upload? That is the question that many investors are made.

According to the Weiss Crypto analysis firm, gold is the key signal. This is so since, in the past, precious metal has proven to be an advanced indicator of the price of Bitcoin for several months, especially in the key market moments.

The company argues that, by analyzing the performance of both assets since 2018, it is evident that “the important minimums of gold usually precede those of Bitcoin.” In August 2018, for example, gold had a significant fall. Also, in December of that year, BTC played background, as seen in the following graph:

A similar situation occurred in the next cycle. When Bitcoin reached its historical maximum in November 2021, gold had already stopped marking new maximums, what served as an early warning of a correction. Here is better:

In the current scenario, Weiss Crypto estimates that Bitcoin could reach a new peak towards the end of November 2025. This projection is based on its own model that combines technical analysis and historical data. In his opinion, if the employer is maintained, the current upward cycle could have at least three more months of growth.

However, the behavior of gold in the coming months will be key. If the metal manages to exceed its maximum of April, close to $ 3,450 per ounce, this could point out that Bitcoin has space to continue climbing even until 2026. Instead, if gold begins to weaken, It could be an early sign that the upward cycle is about to be exhausted.

To the above, it is added that the current circumstances are not the same as those of previous cycles, since there have been wars and armed conflicts where the relationship between Bitcoin and gold “was temporarily invested” due to macroeconomic chaos, they say from the analytical firm.

So far this year, gold has appreciated more than 25%. The TrainingView graph below shows that the price of gold remains in a bullish trend and that the 14 -day RSI is 54.71, a neutral level, indicating that there is still room for more increases without entering overwhelming.

In addition, the RSI rises its mobile average (yellow line), which suggests renewed impulse. If the price breaks the maximum recent, it could continue its promotion. However, if the RSI falls below its average, it could indicate a loss of strength.

Greater demand for hard assets

The Weiss Crypto approach coincides with the analysis of investor Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, who highlights Factors that could be pushing Bitcoin and gold up.

Among them, the high inflation recorded in recent years, the freezing of foreign reserves from countries such as Russia and commercial conflicts between global powers. These elements They have promoted a greater demand for alternative and decentralized assets, Like Bitcoin.

Edwards suggests that, if the trend is maintained, Bitcoin could reach USD 150,000 towards the end of 2025, although the author warns that Variables such as geopolitical tension could modify that scenario.

In parallel, the Vaneck investments firm has also supported an upward thesis for Bitcoin. The company indicates that the digital currency offers structural advantages against gold as a value reserve. Among them, Bitcoin’s fungibility stands out, its transparency in transactions and the programming of its scarcity, with a maximum issuance of 21 million units.

Vaneck presents figures that reinforce this vision. Until June 30, 2025, Bitcoin shows an accumulated return of 35,000% in a decade. In shorter terms, profitability has also been significant: 122% in the last year, 99% in three years and more than 1,200% in five.

According to the firm, although Bitcoin’s volatility is high, a controlled assignment in traditional portfolios can improve the performance adjusted to risk. In addition, he points out that in high inflation environments or monetary expansion, the asset offers coverage that does not depend on central authorities.

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s geopolitical use has also gained ground. Since 2022, Russia has increased the use of cryptoactives in its foreign trade, as cryptoics reported, partly as a response to financial sanctions. This situation has reinforced Bitcoin’s narrative as a tool to evade restrictions and preserve value in adverse contexts.

Analysts agree that gold behavior should be observed carefully in the remainder of the year. If the pattern of previous cycles is repeated, the movement of the metal in the coming months could anticipate not only the Bitcoin roof, but also the beginning of a new crypto -winter.