Why 2026 will be another difficult year for global trade

Global trade approaches 2026 after one of the most turbulent years of the last centurymarked by the reconfiguration of routes, the imposition of tariffs and growing political uncertainty. Although freight flows managed to remain relatively strong in 2025, signs beneath the surface point to a much more complex scenario in the short term.

While United States President Donald Trump advanced his protectionism strategy through new tariffs, global container trade grew 2.1% year-on-year in October. However, This average hides a profound redistribution of trade: The United States recorded an 8% drop in imports, while regions such as Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and India emerged as new growth poles.

Experts warn that 2026 will be the year in which the consequences of the US tariff policy are fully felt. The review of the USMCA agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico threatens to open a stage of difficult negotiationsin which any concession to one of the parties could harm the others. Tensions are already evident, especially between Washington and Ottawa.

In the logistics field, the possible massive return of ships to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, after the reduction of attacks in the area, could generate an oversupply of capacity and congestion in European ports. Added to this is the risk of a strong recovery in US demand, which would once again put global supply chains to the test. The trade agreements promoted by the White House also do not offer guarantees of stability. Lacking robust enforcement mechanisms and leaving out a structural solution with China, these pacts remain vulnerable to political and geopolitical pressures, especially from Beijing.

Finally, a pending US Supreme Court decision on the legality of reciprocal tariffs adds an additional element of uncertainty. An adverse ruling for Trump could force the country’s trade strategy to be redefined, although it would not necessarily imply the return of tariffs already collected. Thus, global trade enters 2026 navigating between fragile agreements, legal tensions and logistical risks, in a context where stability continues to be the exception and not the norm.