2026, the year in which the great change in the leadership of central banks begins

The relief reaches the top of the big central banks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) They prepare the set of chairs. The first to pass the baton will be Jerome Powell, whose tenure as president of the US central bank next May expires this May. He was appointed by Trump in November 2017 and re-elected by Joe Biden. Now, after almost nine years at the helm, he will abandon this responsibility in the midst of recent months marked by friction with the North American president, who since his return to the White House has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates.

However, Powell’s reluctance to move based on political decisions and wait to lower the price of money until the macroeconomic data justified it led to an increase in tension with the US president. who came to qualify the head of politics monetary “imbecile.” The three drops of 25 basis points applied since September, placing the reference rate of money between 3.5% and 3.75%, have not satisfied the North American administration, which has begun to demand drops of half a point.

Between accusations of “killing growth” and being “rigid who is afraid of inflation,” Trump has been outlining some clues of the profile of substitute you are looking for, whose name you will reveal “soon”. The pools point to the director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, as favorite. With a ‘dovish’ profile, conducive to tipping the balance towards a more moderate Fed, it seems to be aligned with Donald Trump’s desire to continue with the cuts.

Added to that list of candidates are Kevin Warshformer Fed governor, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowmanboth current members of the Fed, and the BlackRock executive, Rick Rieder. The president has admitted that he is interviewing potential candidates and that he is looking for the next leader of the central bank to be flexible with rates if markets “do well”. “Anyone who disagrees with me will never be chairman of the Federal Reserve!” he said.

New president and vice president for the ECB

In the case of the eurozone, the race for the four vacant positions to be filled within the European Central Bank (ECB) in the next two years has already begun. Although Christine Lagarde has already expressed her intention to exhaust her mandate and remain in office until 2027some names are already being heard to take the baton. Among them is that of the Spanish Pablo Hernández de Cos, former governor of the Bank of Spain (BdE), who is nominated as one of the favorites. The current president of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which He was appointed last summer for a term After five years, he earned recognition in the financial sector for his technical profile, without a political past, and for being a great expert on monetary policy.

The economist rivals Klaas Knotgovernor of the Central Bank of Holland, about whom Lagarde has stated that he would be a good replacement. “I’ve known him for at least six years. He has the intellect, the stamina and the ability to connect with others (…). The members of the Governing Council often behave like divas and you have to know how to handle them. He knows how to do it, but he is not the only one,” Lagarde defended a few weeks ago. The election of Knot would point to a future preference by the ECB for high rates that would keep inflation at bay compared to the position of the ‘doves’, more favorable to placing low rates to promote economic growth.

They close the shortlist with the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nageland her compatriot Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, who, when asked if she would be prepared to take over from Lagarde, said: “If they asked me I would be ready”. It so happens that Schnabel will also have to leave two months after Lagarde, being the only women with leadership positions within the institution.

Spain has not never held the presidency of the ECBjust as Germany has not done so, but the vice presidency has, currently occupied by the former Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, who must leave in May, like the organization’s chief economist, Philip Lane. In this context, The Minister of Economy, Commerce and Business, Carlos Body, has assured that they will fight to keep Spain at the top of the central bank that dictates monetary policy in the eurozone.