AI fever is put to the test in earnings season on Wall Street

Wall Street prepares for his major test trusted so far this year. artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed the market in record time. Since January, the stock narrative has been marked by enthusiasm for chips, cloud and generative language models. The big technology companies have become the axis of the rally, led by Nvidiawhose climb has made history.

The Californian company, the epicenter of investment enthusiasm, reached 4,68 trillion dollars in capitalization after hitting a new all-time high of 195,30 dollars per share. So far this year, it has accumulated a rise of 43%. But Even more surprising is that, dFrom its annual minimum, recorded in April, the value has been revalued by 120%. No other stock better represents the market’s faith in the future of AI.

Now, that same faith is put to the test. With the start of the third quarter earnings season, investorsyesores look for solid evidence that growth justifies valuations. The Nasdaq, also at highs, anticipates that Tech giants cannot afford to fail.

The demand for figures

The consensus market estimates that the earnings per share (BPA) of the S&P 500 will grow by 8.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. Revenue forecasts point to an increase of 6.3%. What is notable is that these figures have improved in recent weeks, bucking the usual downward revision trend. FactSet confirms that this upward adjustment is rare and reflects growing confidence.

But the market does not distribute that optimism evenly. Analysts expect technology companies to increase their profits by 21%, while public service companies would do so by 17.5%, also driven by AI infrastructure. On the contrary, sectors such as energy and basic consumption would be penalized with drops close to 3%.

Investors are no longer satisfied with big promises. They demand that companies demonstrate that AI is not just a gamble future, but a tool that improves productivity and profitability in the present. That will be the bar in the coming days for Nvidiabut also for others like Broadcom, which has risen 48% this year and whose capitalization exceeds 1,63 billions of dollars.

Multiples to the limit

The pressure is amplified if titration levels are observed. According to Citi, the S&P 500 is currently trading in the 99th percentile of its historical series. Only one percent of the time has it shown more demanding multiples. The MSCI AC Index Worlda benchmark for global equities, is located in the 92nd percentile. These metrics invite caution.

Any disappointment in the quarterly accounts could change the tone of the market. Analysis firms warn that investors will pay special attention attention to the evolution of margins and pricing power. Cost pressures resurface and not all companies will be able to pass these increases on to the consumer.

At the same time, Consumer behavior is closely monitored. Household financial confidence remains key for consumer-oriented companies. In this context, the results of firms such as Levi’s, Constellation BrandsDelta or PepsiCo They will offer the first clues about spending trends. Card spending, delinquency and credit quality will be central indicators.

The resilience of the financial sector will also be assessed. Between Monday the 13th and Wednesday the 15tha flood of relevant publications will be concentrated: BlackRockJPMorgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley They will show whether the strength of the sector is still intact. Bankinter maintains that the results should continue to be “good enough” to sustain the current phase of the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitics and macroeconomics introduce new variables. The recent stoppage of gThe US government could reduce the visibility of macroeconomic data. Besides, the bankruptcy of First Brandswith more than 10,000 million in debt, has raised alarms about the boom of private credit. And although the BEuropean Central Bank has minimized the rise in inflation in Europe, consumers do not share that optimism.

On the other hand, Asian AI hardware makers have emerged as unexpected favorites. Companies like Eoptolink, Innolight and Suzhou TFC They lead the Chinese CSI 300 with triple-digit growth, reflecting the growing demand for optical transceivers for data centers.

All this happens while OpenAI reaches a valuation of 500 billion dollars, Intel closes strategic alliances and the technology giants reorganize their investments. The fall earnings season will not be just another one. The narrative of the AI, which has boosted the market like few times before, will now have to confirm that it can sustain it too.