At what price will the megawatt per hour be?
Everything points to a positive electrical future. Compared to last year, the electricity bill could be 45% cheaper. The months of January and February are the coldest and, therefore, where the most heating consumption, among other expenses, is made. However, with the first cold temperatures, still in autumn, Tempos Energía points out that the TTF has been sheltered at unprecedented lows, between 30-31 euros per megawatt per hour.
“We have cheap and stable gas and winter starts from a real ground with a comfortable, but highly sensitive system,” says Antonio Aceituno, energy market analyst and CEO of Tempos Energía. In this sense, with a gas reference framed between 30 and 35 euros, the light would be framed at 60-65 euros per megawatt per hour.
AND, even if the situation went out of this calm flowthe range could move up to 36-42 euros, with a light forecast between 80-85 euros per MWh, but it would still be 12 to 22% cheaper than the previous year.
The reason the gas is contained
That gas is at a minimum or in a contained situation is mainly due to meteorological issues. The energy consultancy has explained that The mild temperatures that are occurring during this November have caused the demand for gas to reduce. To do this, they take the case of Germany as an example, in which 5 degrees more than usual have been recorded on this date. So, European demand is estimated to be around 140 terawatt hours10% less than in the month of October.
In addition, the consulting firm also points out as the reason for this lower price the shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas that Europe receives, which are 38% more than the previous year, since Asia continues to remain in the shadows and without withdrawing shipments. Meanwhile, Europe continues to be the main supplier of gas to Europe with 329-342 billion per cubic meter and CO2 is in a stable situation of about 82 euros per ton.
Brent oil, another situation to take into account
He Brent oil is trading around $61.88touching its May lows and consolidating the range of 60-70 dollars as the usual trend of the year. This weakness responds to a clear oversaturation of the market: while the United States sets pumping records and OPEC+ has reintroduced 2.9 million barrels per day, demand is faltering due to the loss of momentum in China and the departure of investment funds. According to Antonio Aceituno, the current price places OPEC+ in an uncomfortable position, but not enough to force aggressive cuts.turning the $60 support into a “congestion zone” due to the excess of physical crude oil available.
Despite the geopolitical instability, neither the incidents in the Strait of Hormuz nor the attacks in Russia have managed to alter the trend, demonstrating that the market has assimilated these risks. Looking to the future, two opposite scenarios are proposed: A disciplined supply cut or a rebound in logistical tension could lift crude oil towards $75-80; However, if the overproduction alerted by the International Energy Agency is confirmed and China continues to lose economic traction, the current floor could give way, dragging the price towards 50-55 dollars per barrel.
