“The calm can be broken”

He price of light has registered a 40% rise in October and could rise further if the gas leaves its current “calm” state. The price balance in the gas market reports a solidity that, “in the best scenario for the energy markets, would maintain price stability in the electricity bill“.

As explained by the general director of the consulting firm Tempos Energía, Antonio Aceituno, “if the winter remains mild and liquefied gas flows normally in geopoliticselectricity will maintain price containment”.

In this calm scenario, the prices of the first quarter of 2026 will be between 78 and 82 euros per megawatt hourwhich would imply a drop of almost five percentage points less than in the same period of the previous year.

However, Aceituno recalled that, “if the cold weather breaks out, if there is a substantial change in the gas scenario or if at this time, any other geopolitical tension appears, the calm can be broken“. In this way, the pool prices for the first quarter of 2026 would move between 85 and 90 euros per megawatt hour, which would mean an increase of 4.6%.

For the director of Tempos Energía, “the markets face the most delicate stretch of the year, which corresponds to the beginning of true winter”. “They do it with a consolidated balance, keeping the market in a stable and calm situation, although not shielded,” he added.

The TTF ‘spot’ price indicates an average of 32.09 euros per megawatt hour in the month of October, its lowest level since 2020. Behind this “calm” is the temperate climate, which consolidates gas between 31 and 33 euros. Near the beginning of the winter season, The TTF for next month is currently trading at 31.84 euros per megawatt hour and in the last ten weeks it has maintained a “very narrow” range between 31 and 34 euros, as highlighted by the energy consulting firm.

In this sense, Aceituno have pointed out that “liquefied natural gas acts today as an anchor of stability for different reasons.” During the month of October, Europe has received more than ten billion cubic meters, increasing by 19% weekly since the middle of the month. From Tempos Energía they have pointed out that “This calm is not structural because an increase in demand in Asia or possible logistical tensions, could divert shipments and cause a rebound in liquefied natural gas for Europe.

Likewise, gas storage in Europe is currently at 82.9%, offering “a comfortable margin, although lower than that enjoyed in 2024.” “If winter demand accelerates, this mattress will be affected quickly”recalled the director of Tempos Energía.

Other latent risks that could unbalance the gas situation and, therefore, the energy markets are the Norwegian flows, for the moment stable and without incidents, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine or the price of CO2, anchored between 75 and 80 euros per ton.

Combined cycles, leaders

For Aceituno, there is “a reality” around the price of electricity during the month of October. During this month has shot up to 84.73 euros per megawatt per hour, which is 38.8% more than the previous month. All time slots suffer from rising prices, causing the market to become structurally more expensive.

Tempos Energía’s analysis has pointed to the fall in wind energy as the first factor that explains the increase in prices. “Just as the rate of wind power has decreased at night, solar energy has given way at midday due to the shortening of daylight hours.” “Less generation implies fewer cheap hours and fewer negative prices, narrowing the valley of the duck curve,” they noted.