The fever for Treasury Bills deflates and the individual saver begins to take refuge in Bonds in search of greater profitability

Not long ago, individual investors queued at the door of the Bank of Spain (BdE) to buy Treasury Bills. The rapid rise in interest rates made this product one of the most attractive on the market at that time, after years of ‘ultra-low’ rates and savers began investing their money in short-term debt. The investment fever, which started at the end of 2022, continued for several quarters, reaching its peak in the summer of 2024, when households came to hoard more than 27,000 million.

Since then, the trend has been downward, reaching below the 20 billion barrier in September, with a year-on-year drop of almost 37%. With this, they are no longer the largest investor in this product, into which they channeled almost 37% of their emissions. At the end of the third quarter, the proportion has been reduced to 25%. The individual found in them the perfect substitute for deposits, whose remuneration was minimal when the money reference rates reached the maximum of 4.5%.

At this point, the question is where this savings is going, now that the price of money in the eurozone has stabilized above 2%. According to the BdE, a part of these funds is being channeled into longer-term debt, that is, in Bonds, although the behavior is incipient. The latest data corresponding to September show that Spaniards hoard State Bonds worth 3,232 million, which, although it is small compared to Letters, has experienced an advance of 13% in the last twelve months.

Víctor Alvargonzález, founder and CEO of the independent advisory company, Nextep Finance, explains to Economic Information that this responds to the search for greater profitability, although there are still investors who continue to find a “reasonable” interest in the short term, which oscillates slightly below 2%, as reflected in the latest auctions. It must be taken into account that almost three years ago the State paid interests that were close to 4%. This Friday, the yield on the ten-year Spanish bond closed above 3.2%.

This behavior is reflected in the dynamics experienced by investment funds, with the fixed income categories being the ones with the largest inflows of money. The provisional advance published by Inverco, the sector’s employers’ association, states that fixed income was the one that highest volume of net subscriptions recorded in Septemberwith special intensity in those with greater long-term exposure, a factor that has been accompanied by higher remuneration. A favorable breeding ground for increases in money inflows of over 20%. In fact, the provisional data for November includes the landing of almost 30,000 million in savings in the whole of 2025.

It is accompanied by mixed fixed income, with 3,200 million until September, more than 5,000 if last month is taken as a reference; as well as monetary ones – short-term debt – that remain the destination par excellence of ultra-conservative savings. Of the 1,000 million in net subscriptions accumulated at the end of Septemberreach the last month of the year above 1.5 billion, appearing as the typology that grows the most in November.

Banks have also found a safe haven in bonds and obligations and hold more than 198,817 million, 15% of the total in circulation. This is a record amount according to the historical series, which starts in 2016. Compared to September 2024, the entities have increased their portfolio by 20,000 million, contrary to what happened with the Letters. In this case, the amount falls below 8.5 billion and marks annual minimums.

The Public Treasury’s financing strategy for 2025 contemplates the net issuance of 55,000 million, compared to the 60,000 million initially stipulated, and maintains the program without variations with respect to 2024. The State revised downwards a few months ago its financing needs for the whole of the year due to the greater economic growth, especially due to the dynamism of the labor market, which marks a record of Social Security affiliates with 21.8 million workers.