The United States strangles Venezuela’s oil industry without firing a single shot

Venezuela closes the year practically outside the international oil system. Following the United States’ decision to reestablish sanctions in October that limit crude oil exports, access to financing and penalize companies that negotiate with the state oil company, Venezuelan oil is once again trapped in its own country.

This coincides with the accusations of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, against the government of Nicolás Maduro, stating that Caracas “uses oil as a financing instrument for illicit activities“and directly pointing out PDVSA as a structure captured by criminal networks.

Although these statements do not, in and of themselves, have immediate legal effects, they do reinforce the political climate surrounding sanctions and harden the bipartisan consensus in Washington in favor of maintaining pressure.

The result is a low-intensity, but persistent storm: no declared warwithout naval blockades, but with enough political and military noise so that banks, insurers, operators and shipping companies prefer to stay on the sidelines. Just a series of administrative decisions that, one after another, have managed to suffocate PDVSA with papers.

Full brake

The crisis began in October, when the US Treasury decided not to renew the general license that had given oxygen to the sector. At that time, crude oil production was close to 800,000 barrels per day, according to OPEC sources, the highest level in more than four years.

The interest of the large international oil companies had returned. Chevron had expanded operations, Eni and Repsol were once again sending shipments to Europe under specific licenses. But the change in position from Washington has stopped everything. Not due to lack of oil, but due to lack of buyers willing to assume the legal and reputational cost. to load it.

The result is a low-intensity but persistent storm: without declared war, without naval blockades, but with enough political and military noise so that banks, insurers, operators and shipping companies prefer to stay on the sidelines.

According to OPEC, in November Venezuela pumped 678,000 barrels per day, a drop of more than 100,000 barrels compared to the third quarter average. It is not just a lower figure, it is a setback that is beginning to have an impact on the balance of payments. Ecoanalítica estimates that Fourth quarter oil revenues will fall between 28% and 32% with respect to the third, directly affecting the availability of foreign currency. It is the same quarter in which the Government is risking the fiscal closing of the year.

The reaction has been immediate. In the foreign exchange market, the bolivar has depreciated close to 20% between mid-October and mid-December. The gap with the official rate already exceeds 45%, a level that has not been seen since mid-2023.

On the other hand, The Central Bank of Venezuela has reduced its foreign exchange interventionsgoing from weekly averages of more than 120 million dollars in September to less than 50 million in December. In addition, prices are accelerating again. In Caracas, the price of a kilo of chicken has risen 17% since the beginning of the month.

The ships also show that uncertainty. In the last two weeks, six cargo ships carrying Merey crude oil (reference in Venezuela) have been anchored or awaiting instructions in the Caribbean, according to Kepler. Nobody wants to sign the receipt without guarantees of regulatory compliance.

PDVSA, meanwhile, has returned to a defensive strategy. Cancellation of contracts, suspension of minor payments, renegotiation of conditions with suppliers. The company tries to sustain production with its own resources, but the infrastructure cannot last much longer without maintenance.

OPEC itself recognizes that more than 60% of upgraders and mature fields operate with deferred maintenance. Individual licenses that remain valid are subject to periodic renewals and do not guarantee stable cash flows.

In previous years, every downturn in Venezuela was a threat to prices. Today, it just isn’t.

The Government of Nicolas Maduro is at the same time looking for alternatives. Meetings with Chinese emissaries, promises of cooperation with Iran, discreet trips to Ankara. But so far, the results have been symbolic. The bulk of exports to Asia are made with discounts that exceed $20 per barrel compared to Brent, according to market sources.

The box closes

In the midst of all this energy chaos, fiscal accounts begin to creak. Public spending has been contained, public sector salaries have been frozen since September and imports have dropped 22% compared to the same month last year. The PDVSA fund, which had once again financed part of the state apparatus, has been closed again. The accumulated oil revenues in 2025 are around 12,000-13,000 million, very far from the levels prior to the sanctions.

What makes the difference this time is the international context. In previous years, every downturn in Venezuela was a threat to prices. Today, it simply is not. The United States produces more than ever. Brazil and Guyana add almost 5 million barrels per day. The benchmark Brent oil in Europe has remained below $64 during December, despite the tension and no one, neither in London nor New York, seems to be looking at Caracas.

What happens in the coming months will depend on two factors. The first is if Washington decides to grant some flexibility again, even if it is minimal. So far, the US administration has reiterated that any relief will be conditional on verifiable political commitments.

The second is if Venezuela manages to maintain production above 600,000 barrels without external support. Neither of the two variables has a clear date. Meanwhile, the country operates with oil it cannot sell, tanks it cannot fill, and promises it cannot collect.