These are the loan forecasts for the second half of the year, according to experts
The mortgage signing has grown in the last month 15.5% compared to the previous month, and year-on-year in a 28%according to data published by the INE.
Despite Both increases are accentuated by the comparison with festive periods (due to Easter that took place in March and last year it took place entirely in April), in which there are usually fewer business days to sign loans, the truth is that the data is “positive in a context of high interest rates and a Euribor that still refuses to go down,” as explained by Fotocasa.
This is because, despite the current context of high rates, mortgage applicants “show confidence in the market and in its ability to assume long-term debt.” Since last October, the Euribor data has stabilized and the banking entities have adjusted their offers, while the rate increases “have not frozen demand, but are affecting the ‘overdemand’ that has arisen”, according to data from the real estate portal
Conditions will improve after the beginning of “the de-escalation of rates”
Fotocasa experts believe that the beginning of The “de-escalation of rates” by the ECB will mark the second stage of the year: We will go from a context in which rates do not fall to one in which they begin to fall: “From now on we will begin to see how Access to housing improves as access conditions are lowered to mortgage credit. “Purchase demand and with it loan applications will return to the market strongly in the last stage of the year.”
However, All of this will be conditional, as always, on the decisions of the ECB.: real estate dynamism, experts detail, “will depend on whether the monetary institution lowers rates again or maintains them until 2025.” In any case, the inflation data suggests that the monetary institution will be restrictive in its decisions.
In any case, in the second half of 2024 it will go “from less to more”: Another factor will be the bidding war of the banks to see who offers the best conditions and boost their sales, which will be “a good sign for buyers who have been waiting for a long time for mortgage conditions to be reduced.”
