This is how experts see the mortgage market in 2026

The year 2025 is on track to become one of the best for the Spanish mortgage market. According to the latest data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INE)the number of mortgages constituted on homes exceeds 419,000 in the first ten months of the year, which is the best figure in the last 15 years in the absence of knowing the official figures for November and December.

All this has occurred in a context where prices have not given the consumer any respite, reaching levels unimaginable a few years ago. So, The average price of new and used housing in Spain will close this year at 2,091 euros per square meter13.1% more than a year ago and 10% more if the effect of inflation is not taken into account, according to preliminary data provided this Monday by the appraisal company Tinsa.

In this scenario of high demand and high prices with no solid signs of stopping, various experts predict an increase in the cost of mortgages throughout 2026. It would be a consequence of the policy carried out in recent times by the European Central Bank (ECB)which has maintained its frozen interest rates at 2% during the second half of the year considering that they are at the optimal point to contain inflation in the eurozone and encourage economic activity.

“That, on the one hand, will cause banks to raise the interest on their mortgages a little to increase their margins and correct the excessive reductions they carried out in the price war fought between 2024 and 2025. And on the other, will cause the Euribor to stagnate at values ​​close to 2.2%-2.3%although it could maintain its current slightly upward trend in the first months of next year,” he explained Michael Rieramortgage expert from the financial comparator HelpMyCash.

For Maria Matosdirector of studies at Fotocasa, the stabilization of monetary policy of the ECB, will bring a change that will have the direct consequence that “mortgages rise slightly”. “What we are going to stop seeing is how the banks enter this mortgage war so fierce that they had to try to get clients,” he said in a conversation with Sergio Gutiérrez, co-founder of Excellence Circle and real estate expert, on TikTok.

Mortgages still competitive

Despite the foreseeable increases and the end of the open bar on mortgage loans, the interest in offers will still be competitive in 2026. “If we go more specifically, Banks will slightly raise the interest on their fixed mortgages. As for the variables, we do not expect changes in the offers, but those already signed will undergo changes: the fees of those with a semi-annual review will increase, regardless of when it occurs, and those with an annual review will begin to become more expensive starting in the spring,” they have predicted since HelpMyCash.

“For fixed mortgageswe believe that the average rate will be between 2.50% and 3%, although the best profiles will be eligible for lower interest rates (2.30% or even 2.20%). For the variables, the average interest will be around the Euribor plus 0.60%; like now. And for mixed ones, the initial fixed rate will be less than 2.50%,” they stated.

“Financing is no longer the main obstacle”

On the other hand, from the mortgage comparator iAhorro, they have stated that the forecasts point to a real estate market that “will continue to be conditioned by the strong imbalance between a clearly insufficient supply and a demand that remains solid”, a cocktail that inevitably causes the value of real estate to continue growing. In this context, “the improvement and stabilization of mortgage conditions, although positive, will have a limited effect on real access to housing if it is not accompanied by structural advances in terms of supply”.

“We face a scenario in which “Having a good mortgage no longer guarantees being able to buy a home.”stated Laura Martínez, spokesperson for iAhorro. “Financing is no longer the main obstacle, but the rise in property prices and the lack of available housing continue to be the great challenge. If this imbalance is not acted upon, 2026 will once again be a particularly complicated year, especially for citizens who want to access their first home.”