What impact would an ETF have on the price of solana?
GSR Markets, a cryptocurrency investment firm, analyzed the potential impact that the approval of a Solana spot ETF (SOL) could have on the price of the cryptocurrency.
For the company, SOL has established itself as part of the “big three” crypto assets on the marketalong with bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), Ethereum’s cryptocurrency.
“Given that every other crypto asset has or is about to have a spot ETF, not only is it likely to be a matter of time before solana gets one as well, but the impact on SOL could be the biggest yet,” the firm notes.
If any solana-based financial instrument is approved in the future, GSR Markets proposes three possible scenarios for the SOL pricebased on the impact that bitcoin ETFs had on the price of the first digital currency.
It should be noted that GSR It does not make explicit what the reference point for these projections would be.leaving it to the reader’s free interpretation and, perhaps, serving as an argument in the future if the expectation is not met.
However, it can be assumed that the price at the time when the news of the ETF application was announced is being taken into account, i.e. $136.
Starting from there, the company projects that Solana can increase 1.4x under a scenario of bearish flows, reaching a price of 190 dollars.
In an intermediate scenario, it stipulates a 3.4x increase, which would mean a price of $462.
Finally, the third scenario is completely bullish and projects an increase of 8.9x, reaching a price of $1,210 per unitas seen in the following image.
However, GSR believes there is reason to believe that the impact “could be greater than these estimates” since, unlike bitcoin, solana is actively used for staking and within decentralized applications.
The first application for a solana spot ETF was brought to you by VanEck, a digital asset manager, as reported by CriptoNoticias. This initiative, together with the GSR analysis, revives expectations about the future of solana and its potential to attract new investors.
There would be no solana ETF in the short term
According to the company, The main obstacle for the solana ETF to come to fruition is related to regulations.
«The path to making a digital asset ETF a reality in the United States is clear, and requires a federally regulated futures market (of which there is none beyond bitcoin and ether), the futures market must exist for several years, demonstrate sufficient correlation, and a futures-based ETF must be approved before it can be considered a spot product.”
Therefore, GSR considers that there will be no solana ETF in the short termHowever, change is “already underway,” with Donald Trump’s backing of the cryptocurrency industry, he notes.
If Trump becomes president of the United States for a second term, together with a liberal president at the head of the SEC, it could open the possibility of a bill for digital assets that “defines securities and commodities,” the report said.
In fact, the company believes that such a scenario is not only possible, but may even be probable.
