Banco Sabadell buries the BBVA takeover chapter with a new record profit until September, according to analysts

Sabadell Bank will put the finishing touch to the banking results season in Spain. The Catalan entity will report to the market next Thursday, November 13, in which if analysts’ forecasts are met will mark a new profit record for the accumulated of the first nine months with 1,403 million in profits, almost 8.5% more with respect to the 1,295 million from the same period in 2024. If confirmed, it could achieve a new record, although it would already begin to notice a slowdown in growth.

According to the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus, In the third quarter, the result will amount to 428 million, slightly below the 489 million of the previous quarter, a figure that would be 15% lower than that recorded between July and September 2024, when it slightly exceeded 500 million. Nuria Álvarez, banking analyst at Renta 4points out that the income statement will be impacted by lower interest rates and the depreciation of the pound in the summer period, which could lead to a flat interest margin.

Like other entities, the record result could be supported by the biggest boost in the commissions area. During the presentation of the 2025-2027 strategic plan last July, the group updated some of the objectives, including profitability expressed in terms of ROTE, which they now expect to be above the 14.5% compared to 14% previously. Without taking into account the impact of its British subsidiary, TSB, they expect a mid-single-digit improvement in commissions in a year-on-year comparison, but it has slightly reduced the interest margin to 4.9 billion, raising total costs by about 1%.

The business in the United Kingdom will continue to contribute to the group’s profit until its sale to Banco Santander is completed, a transaction that, It is expected to close in March 2026. for 3,400 million euros if the impact of profits is taken into account until said transfer materializes. This business has contributed between January and June a total of 171 million profit, equivalent to 18%.

Banco Sabadell has been optimistic over the last few months about the business prospects for the year as a whole, which has status marked by BBVA’s takeover bid. This fourth quarter will be the only one that they will work on without the condition that an operation of this magnitude entails. The strategy of their Numantine defense has led them to channel attention towards shareholder remuneration, with which they have committed to distributing up to 6,450 million between dividends and share repurchases until 2027 after the increase of 150 million over the 1.3 billion already announced for 2025, in a context marked by the “positive evolution of the business, results and capital generation.” With this update, Sabadell has increased the remuneration up to six times.

It should be remembered that in 2024 they exceeded 1,800 million profitsreaching a historic level to date, an amount higher than the 1.6 billion projected for 2027, the last exercise of the strategic cycle current and a profitability of 16%. The analysts consulted agree that the market’s attention will once again focus on the bank’s strategy and its growth expectations exclusively in Spain. The guides are in line with the messages launched by the CEO, César González-Bueno, who has commented in one of his last public appearances that Sabadell “is prepared” to grow and be profitable.

Among the pending objectives is the formalization of the alliance with the Italian Nexi in order to seal an agreement on payments for the transfer of Paycomet. This alliance was about to close when the OPA blew up its plans. In the negotiations started in 2023, it was contemplated that the Sabadell would maintain 20% of the platform for at least three years and continue marketing products related to payments, mainly credit and debit cards through a scheme similar to the signed with the French manager Amundi.

According to the report ‘Financial behavior of individuals in Spain in 2025’, prepared by the consulting firm Inmark, Banco Sabadell has gained clients with a penetration of 10.6%, four tenths more, although it has fallen positions as main bank, in which it appears as the sixth banking group.