BBVA is approaching 100,000 million in stock market value after the rise due to the failure of its takeover bid for Sabadell

Beyond the strategic blow, the market’s reading of the failure of the takeover bid is different, given that when the merger failed, BBVA “frees up a significant amount of capital that can be redistributed towards actions with a higher return for its shareholders,” says Sergio Ávila, IG analyst. This logic has been reflected, in fact, in the price, and BBVA shares have been rising strongly since the result was known, which shows that many investors “see failure as an opportunity.”

BBVA shares stand out on the Ibex 35 with a rise of 3% that propels it above 17 euros per share, a level that it has not touched for 18 years, and They approach the 100,000 million valuation on the stock market, a barrier that has never been reached. The fact that the operation has not gone ahead “has calmed the political noise, but has taken away momentum from the financial sector, leaving investors without a narrative of concentration that had fueled much of the rally,” says Javier Molina, eToro Markets Analyst.

The expert adds that, however, the general feeling remains one of confidence. The surveys reflect pessimism, but the flows show that people “continue buying, a reflection of that mixture of euphoria and denial so common at the end of the cycle.” As soon as the failure of the operation became clear, BBVA chose to detail to the market its roadmap as an independent entity, which involves reinforcing remuneration with share buybacks.

The first program will start on October 31, to which another will be added, the amount of which is still unknown. Added to this is the payment of the largest interim dividend in its history, payable on November 7, when you will pay 0.32 euros per share. He end of the uncertainty associated with this operationwhich has been extended for 17 months, has been awarded in the market. “The risk of greater capital consumption is eliminated and a possible capital increase in the face of a potential second takeover bid in cash,” explains Renta 4 banking analyst Nuria Álvarez.

BBVA’s plan now involves growing alone and focusing on its 2025-2028 strategic plan, which includes the goal of achieving a net profit of 48,000 million in the period, boosting the expressed profitability in terms of ROTE at 22% and place the efficiency ratio – the lower it is, the better – at 35%. “The financial objectives show a trend of income growth supported by the different franchises, collecting the dynamism expected commercial, gaining scale in all business segments, control of operating expenses and the expected improvement in the risk profile,” says Álvarez.

Sabadell tries to recover from the fall

BBVA’s rebound is in line with that experienced by Sabadell, which is beginning to recover from last Friday’s fall and shortly after the mid-session it increases by almost 3.5%, to 3.11 euros. recovering some ground in the face of the correction on Friday. The exit of the arbitrage funds once the result of the operation was known caused a drop of 1.1 billion in valuation.

“It is normal to see a rebound if the news that caused the fall does not have a large impact on the fundamental value of the business. This is the case of the takeover bid, which caused the share prices of Sabadell and BBVA to adjust due to the premium offered. Once there is no longer a premium, the market will focus on the company’s performance,” comment the XTB analysts. From now on the focus will be on the quarterly results. Sabadell will be in charge of closing the season among the Ibex 35 banks on November 13.