Gold, bitcoin, S&P 500… Can anything stop the rally?

The bull market is three years old, but the warnings are multiplying. The rises in gold, bitcoin and S&P 500far from reflecting euphoria, are for many a defensive response to an increasingly questioned monetary and fiscal environment.

From JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimonto the Bank of England (BoE)passing through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Caution messages accumulate. Dimon He has spoken of a 30% probability of correction. He BoE fears a bubble around valuations linked to artificial intelligence. The IMF, for its part, warns of a possible abrupt end to the stock market rally. Even some veteran investors, like Jim Rogers, have begun to unwind positions.

However, the bull has no brake. So far in 2025, the S&P 500 accumulates a revaluation greater than 14%gold exceeds $4,000 with a 53% riseand bitcoin has reached scaler in some sessions above the 125,000 dollars. May these three assetsyoustill different in nature and risk profile, They go up in unison, it is something unusual.

In recent history, this type of synchronicity has only occurred in moments where investors, rather than seeking profitability, they were looking for refuge. Refuge against the deterioration of the value of currencies traditional, in the face of persistent inflation and against the degradation of the traditional monetary order.

The data reinforces in part that narrative. The influx of capital into spot bitcoin ETFs has reached tenfold the daily supply generated by miners. Institutional funds such as BlackRock They already accumulate more than 1.5 million bitcoinswhich, once acquired, are withdrawn from the market.

This constant pressure on supply, combined with programmed demand, fuels what some analysts already define as the fertile ground for a “supply shock.” And in parallel, gold reaches historical highs due to institutional purchases and reserves of central banks that want to diversify their assets.

Signs of overheating

TO As the rally progresses,The warnings gain strength. J.amie Dimon warns that the probability of a correction is 30%, not 10% as many investors discount. Their concern is not only macroeconomic, but also institutional.and specifically the risk that the Federal Reserve (Fed) lose independence. In your opinion, this could trigger a sharp revaluation of dollar-denominated assets. Dimon He does not speak from catastrophism, but from experience: “and“We are in a more uncertain, more fragile, more militarized world.”

And there is more. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, has joined the warnings. ANDthe executive has pointed out that, although he sleeps peacefully, I wouldn’t rule out a “drawdown“ (strong drop) in the next 12 to 24 months. “The market often gets ahead of the real potential. In previous cycles, new technologies also generated bubbles. It wouldn’t be unusual to see something similar now,” he said.to.

Other factors play at the same time. ANDThe impact of the dollar and the real interest rate (the differential between he performance of the bonuses and the expected type), cann affect the competitiveness of non-yielding assets, such as bitcoin or gold.

And macro shocks have not disappeared. dFrom the global slowdown to geopolitical tensions or the sovereign debt crisis, any exogenous event can unleash sudden adjustments in a market where volatility is contained, but latent.

So can anything stop the rally?

History suggests yes. No rise lasts forever. But it also teaches that great bull cycles usually die from their own excess, not from the absence of fundamentals. Right now, what’s driving the market is as much narrative as it is financial: a mix of enthusiasm for AI, fear of currency devaluation, and the desperate search for safe haven assets. If any of those three pillars falter, the market could adjust.

For now, however, the forces remain aligned. The S&P 500 celebrates three years of recovery with health that is not only technical, but also emotional. And as the warnings pile up, investors, professionals or individuals, They continue to believe that there is still more to gain.