How the overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela may affect oil, gasoline and diesel prices

The military operation that the United States carried out on Saturday in Venezuela and which resulted in the arrest of Nicolás Maduro has put the focus on the possible impact on an oil and fuel market that has been dealing with geopolitical crises of draft for months. The country has the largest proven reserves of ‘black gold’ on the planet (around 303 billion barrels), but it now barely represents 0.8% of global crude oil production. However, it is one more actor on a board marked by excess supply and relatively weak demand.

That context is important. The price of oil recorded its biggest decline in the last five years in 2025. The barrel of Brent, the reference crude oil in Europe, fell by 19%, while that of the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by around 20%. The cartel of OPEC producers (of which Venezuela is a founding member) and its partners (such as Russia, Mexico and Malaysia) increased pumping after years of cuts.

For the USA, the world’s leading producer, It was also a record exercisegiven that it brought more than 13.8 million barrels per day to the market. At the same time, demand from large consumers, such as China, began to suffer due to the take-off of the electric car and an economy that, despite advancing, did not do so at the pace expected. A political change in Venezuela, if accompanied by the increase in infrastructure investments that Washington intends – the White House is in a certain hurry to make this happen – can add more oil to the world market and put downward pressure on prices, although this process would not be immediate.

Impact on the price of a barrel of oil

In the short term, uncertainty about Venezuela’s political future may cause an increase in the price of oil in the futures markets, which reopen in the early hours of Sunday to Monday (for Spain) after the weekend break. However, the experts consulted rule out that, in principle, the increase is very abrupt. “At the moment, in the short term, it will not affect because The market discounts that oil operations will be maintainedand even in the long term it should serve to lower the price,” he explains to Economic Information Antonio Turiel, doctor in Theoretical Physics, expert in energy policy and economics and researcher at the CSIC.

Regarding the intention, expressed by Donald Trump himself, to invest billions of dollars in the oil industry of his southern neighbor, the expert emphasizes that the development that must be done in Venezuela – whose sector has been greatly affected by years of neglect after the arrival of Chavismo to power in 1999 – implies “at least 10 years of investment.” For this reason, it also rules out a short-term impact on the diesel supply crisis, which is one of the main headaches for the White House.

Turiel does not expect an immediate impact on the price of oil, unless a civil war scenario occurs in Venezuela but, above all, if any of the other current sources of geopolitical tension worsen: a revolution in Iran, if there are more attacks on Russian refineries or, even, as a result of Israel’s recognition of the independence of Somaliland. In this sense, Bloomberg cites a recent JP Morgan report that suggests that Maduro’s departure and the country’s political transition may cause an initial disruption in the oil production, which would fall by halfbut also a quick recovery if stability is achieved.

Spain has already reduced its exposure to Venezuelan crude oil

Between January and October of last year, which is the data available to date, Spain reduced oil imports from Venezuela by 70% to 745,000 tons. The Association of Petroleum Operators (AOP) explains that the Spanish refining system is already the most flexible and competitive in the entire European Union, since it has the capacity to process crude oil of different types and origins. In just one month, thirty types of oil arrive from up to fifteen different countries.

This flexibility has already helped Spanish companies cope with the energy crisis that opened with the war in Ukraine and gives them a certain advantage. in case the internal situation in Venezuela worsens. On the other hand, the association always emphasizes that gasoline and diesel prices depend more on the wholesale prices of already refined raw materials and less on the movements that occur in the barrel of oil in the futures markets.