In January, the Government clings to the economy and tries to close the Budgets in the face of its lowest political hours

In January, the Government clings to the good progress of the great economic figures and the determination to be able to carry out this year’s Budgets, after the third consecutive extension, in the face of its lowest political hours. He progress in GDP, the progress of tax collection – which points to another record year – or the resilience of the labor market They give some oxygen in a context marked by cases of corruption, the latest electoral setback in Extremadura and by the elections, just around the corner, in Aragón, Castilla y León and Andalusia.

For now, the roadmap remains in the early stages of the year. The ‘number two’ of the Executive, María Jesús Montero, plans to take the accounts to the Lower House towards the month of February, so the final approval – if it occurs – would not take place. until well into the year. On Thursday, the Minister of Economy, Commerce and Business, Carlos Body, stressed in an interview with Cadena SER that the objective is to move forward no matter what the project that will shape the priorities of government policy, although other voices within the Executive have recently insisted that the legislature will continue with or without budgets.

The new spokesperson for the Executive and head of the Inclusion and Social Security portfolio, Elma Sáiz, acknowledged this week that efforts are focused on trying to weave a network of support sufficient to approve the new accounts, although she admitted that Junts—whose seven deputies are key to that vote and who have already assured that they will not support them—insist that relationships “are broken”. The difficulty in gathering a sufficient parliamentary majority continues to be one of the main headaches of the Government, which, for the moment, can be content with the performance of the economy.

The first test on the economy and employment, at the end of the month

Moncloa will have the first test result at the end of last year at the end of this month. On January 27, the National Institute of Statistics will publish the Labor Force Survey (EPA) for the fourth quarter and only three days later the data from the National Accounting (GDP) of that same period. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty, the economy barely slowed its progress by one tenth between July and September, when it grew 0.6% compared to the previous quarter and 2.8% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Household consumption and business investment are back on track and, according to the Bank of Spain, they are destined to continue being economic drivers in the short and medium term in the absence of major disruptions. The organization led by José Luís Escrivá raised the progress planned for last year to 2.9% and, thanks to this positive inertia, increased the progress for the new year by four tenths to 2.2%. More growth and an unemployment rate that stands at 10.45%, according to the latest EPA.

The dynamism of the labor market and consumption offer another important cushion to the Executive, that of tax collection. The data through October show that income via taxes is growing at a rate of 8.3% year-on-year, 1.7 points above what it did at this time last year. This gives the Government room to increase state public spending at a rate of 6.4%in the midst of the growing needs involved in pension disbursements, investment in defense or the response to DANA.

More money to attract wayward autonomies

In the first ten months of the year, the State has collected 275,363 million euros —21,142 more than in 2024—, of which the majority correspond to taxes (218,543 million). They are the key with which to secure the parliamentary support you need and with which to try to rebuild bridges with the autonomies governed by the PP. The plan to forgive part of the regional debt, which the Council of Ministers approved in the second round last month and with which, in principle, will also go to the Lower House in February, aims to contribute to this.

The bill will lead the State to assume up to 83,252 million euros of the liabilities of the communities that request it. It is closely linked to the new financing model, pending since 2014. The Executive will try to present its proposal in the coming weeks to the councilors of the sector in a new meeting of the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council (CPFF), given that Montero herself assured that it is in a very advanced phase. It will be a way to strengthen ties with ERC, which continues to demand progress in what is known as “singular financing” for Catalonia.

The distribution system would incorporate two important novelties. The Ministry of Finance is considering increasing, on the one hand, the percentage of collection of the main taxes transferred to the autonomies. That is, beyond the 50% they receive from Personal Income Tax, 50% from VAT or 58% from Special Taxes. On the other hand, María Jesús Montero would be devising a plan to replace the current payments on account (settlement takes place two years after the close of the financial year) with a type of direct transfer, which would also give more room for action to the regions.

More transparency in consumer credit

They are not the only lines of economic action in the short term. The Minister of Economy also announced that the Government will approve this January the rule that will limit the conditions of consumer credit to improve its transparency. In addition, it will establish a minimum period of 24 hours for consumers to accept the offer. And Labor has yet to resume negotiations with employers and unions in the coming days to close the increase in the interprofessional minimum wage for this year, which will come into force retroactively from January 1.