The Ibex is playing everything for everything due to the fatigue of the ‘rally’ and the brakes on the bank

A rise as intense as the one experienced by the Ibex 35 in 2025 cannot be sustained without consequences. The Spanish index, which has managed to accumulate a rebound close to 35% in just ten months, now faces a decisive moment.

The energy that has propelled it to approach all-time highs is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. The fatigue is not general, but it is strategic. The bank, the great engine of the comeback, begins to lose steam just when it is needed most. And the international context doesn’t help either. The pressure from US regional banks and the volatility in global markets have thrown the score into disarray.

From iBroker, Antonio Castelo points out that the Spanish market “is beginning to notice technical wear and tear.” The high rise has coincided with a reduction in bearish positions, which has provided a temporary bullish cushion. But once that effect is absorbed, the continuity of rally will depend on more fundamental factors.

First cracks in climbing

In the short term, they detect that derivatives operators are adjusting their risk margins and reducing its net exposure to bankingsuggesting that the most aggressive moves could be close to exhausting themselves.

With an Ibex holding the rate around 15,600 points, the technical signals reinforce that feeling of critical pause. Activotrade identifies the level of 14,650 points, corresponding to the September lows, as the first relevant support. Below are the August lows, close to 14,050 points, which constitute long-range structural support. In their technical analysis, they warn that A clear loss in that area would mark more than just profit-taking. ““With such a vertical rise in such a short time, any poorly digested setback can translate into an abrupt correction.”, they point out.

But the issue goes beyond the graph. In a recent report, analysts at Assettrade They point out that, although the Ibex maintains its path for the rest of the year, it will not do so without company. The sector Financial has been the pillar of progress, but now needs support from other segments. They identify four values ​​that could offer that relief: Inditex, Repsol, Puig and rovi. Taken together, they represent a sector rotation opportunity that could support the index should banks continue to show weakness.

The problem is that the banking environment does not show the same strength as it did a few months ago. At the national level, The market is still digesting the outcome of the takeover bid launched by BBVA for Banco Sabadell. The operation has ended in a draw, with a final acceptance of 25.47% and opposite consequences in the price of both values. BBVA has been rewarded for its decision not to improve the offer, further boosted by the announcement of a record dividend and a share buyback worth 1,000 million euros. Sabadell, on the other hand, has made a correction that reflects the loss of a premium that was already discounted.

At the same time, heto Banking stress in the United States has returned. The results of Zions Bank and Western Alliance have revealed losses due to non-payments and provisions due to fraud that have set off all the alarms. The falls in its shares exceeded the 10% and the VIX, known as the fear index, went from 19.8 to 27 in a few hours. This spike in volatility has not been innocuous. It has contaminated Europe. hhas dragged down giants like Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribasand has also hit Santander and Caixabank.

Pressure elements accumulate in the Ibex

To the technical situation adds a still restrictive interest rate environment and a new requirement from the Bank of Spain that will force entities to maintain a countercyclical capital buffer of 1% starting in 2026. This measure, although designed to reinforce the solidity of the system, acts as a brake on the ability of banks to deploy capital in more expansive strategies.

And without a clear push from the banks, the Ibex loses its main catalyst. On the other hand, Castelo highlights the need for external factors to align. The Federal Reserve could cut rates at upcoming meetings, which would give some relief to the market, but if inflation picks up or growth data disappoints, that hope could be diluted. The perception that the rally of the Ibex depends on a precarious balance between monetary stability and sectoral confidence, it is strongly imposed.

Despite everything, he Ibex has not said its last word. But everything for everything is no longer a rhetorical expression. It is a latent reality. The key will be to see if the sector rotation is activated in time, if the banks manage to stabilize their momentum and if the macroeconomic environment stops creating obstacles. Only then will the music of all-time highs play again. Meanwhile, the index will have to find new catalysts to continue bshimmering