Weak dollar and AI open new opportunities in fixed income for 2026
He dollar weakens, the artificial intelligence (AI) boosts productivity and central banks soften their speech. With this triple axis, the fixed income It is positioned in 2026 as one of the assets with the most potential, but also with the most demands. For experts, the active management, prudence and quality They will once again be key in a still uncertain environment.
Nacho Zarza, manager of Auriga Bonos, starts from a scenario dominated by the continuation of flexible monetary policies. “Most major central banks, except the Bank of Japan, will continue to apply accommodative measures. This, together with a deflationary context, “It should favor a further drop in yields,” he says.
Pedro del Pozo, director of financial investments at Mutualidad, agrees, who expects the year to start more “normalized”but with clear opportunities. 2026 will be complex, but that also means there will be opportunities. We will see a little more profitability in all sections of the curve, especially in the longest ones, thanks to “moderate growth and increased public spending in Europe,” he points out. This spending, especially in the area of defense, will mark part of the movement in European sovereign debt. “He rebound in structural spending in strategic sectors can keep pressure on long rates,” adds Del Pozo.
More visibility for emerging debt if the dollar continues to decline
He dollarfor its part, could continue to give ground. The combination of rate cuts in the United States and the possible appointment of a new president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) similar to Donald Trump fuels this scenario. Trump has already made clear his inclination to cut rateswhich reinforces forecasts of a weaker dollar. In this context, emerging bonds, especially in local currency, could continue to gain appeal. “If this weakness continues, flows towards emerging debt may intensify,” says Zarza.
Ion Zulueta, director of analysis at iCapital, follows the same line and points out that “the depreciation of the dollar is a structural factor to monitor. Emerging local debt may benefit if this pattern is confirmed.”
AI, productivity and lower rates
Added to this environment is a structural change little valued by the market: the AI advancement in business productivity. Zarza explains that “the implementation of AI in labor-intensive sectors and administrative processes is beginning to translate into lower operating costswhich reduces structural inflationary pressures.” If this trend continues, it could allow central banks to maintain a more relaxed monetary policy for longer.
But not everything is optimism. Mar Barrero, director of analysis at Arquia Banca, sends a message of caution. In his opinion, fixed income should be part of every portfolio, but without taking unnecessary risks. “What I wouldn’t do is increase exposure to assets of poorer quality or less liquidity in search of profitability. The risk should be in variable income, not in fixed income,” he says. Barrero recommends maintain prudent exposureespecially in short sections. Short-term fixed income or monetary funds can continue to be useful in 2026, even with returns around 2%, because “they help protect capital and maintain liquidity,” he adds.
Zarza also recommends focusing on quality emissionspreferably with short or medium term maturities. Among the opportunities he highlights, he mentions bonds that are currently trading below their face value, that is, that are trading below 100 points. “In a lower rate environment“Many issuers could choose to redeem these issues early,” he points out. This would allow the investor to obtain a higher coupon and additional profitability by recovering the full value of the bond before maturity, without assuming excessive risk.
As for the segment high yield, Opinions are divided. Jupiter AM manager Adam Darling believes yields remain attractive over the long term. Zarza, for his part, sees mixed signals. It highlights that cyclical sectors such as chemicals and industrials have suffered rapid deterioration, which can be both a warning sign and an opportunity if the economy manages to stabilize. He believes that part of the market is showing a excessive complacencywhile labor market data already points to a possible progressive cooling.
On the other hand, del Pozo remembers that, after a very positive 2025, lFixed income valuations are not especially cheap. He believes that the risk of a correction is still present if there is an unexpected turn on the geopolitical, fiscal or monetary front. Analysts agree that any incident in Taiwana stalemate in the peace process in Ukraine or sudden changes in American tax policy They could quickly upset the balance of the market.
For the individual investor, the roadmap goes through avoid hasty decisions. This is not the time to aggressively extend duration without a clear horizon. Nor about sacrificing quality for profitability. Instead, experts recommend maintaining exposure to investment grade bonds, seeking value in issues with a good risk-return profile and explore opportunities in emerging debt if the profile allows it. Added to this is the importance of having some liquidity available to enter times of correction.
Zarza concludes that 2026 will require a combination of technical analysis, macro vision and flexibility. “Volatility will be a constant. The challenge is not to avoid it, but to know when to take advantage of it.”
