The fantastic four of the European motor industry assume a tariff punishment of 7,000 million in 2025

The great references of the automobile industry made in Europe They reported to the market last week to update the evolution of their business in the third quarter. Groups like Volkswagen, Stellantis either mercedes They opened the way that will follow bmw this Wednesday and, as expected, tariffs from Washington and Brussels and the slowdown in sales in China have taken over the story about their balance sheets.

In terms of tariffs, their appointments with the market were marked in red on investors’ calendars to measure the impact of the tariff policy imposed by the Trump Administration, given that this quarter has been the first in which they have operated under the 15% tariff that the White House applied in September to European cars retroactively as of August 1. The impact is disparate depending on the manufacturer; Some calculate it in margins, others land it in their forecasts and others calculate the cost directly. However, the added punishment suffered by the four large groups of the Old Continent exceeds 7,000 million euros in 2025.

The Volkswagen Group’s forecasts are largely to blame for this figure. The conglomerate that brings together brands such as Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Seat/Cupra estimates a charge of 5,000 million eurosof which 4 billion are due to direct tariff costs, while the rest is linked to the loss of margins due to countermeasures. To the adjustment in Porsche’s strategy with electric vehicles are added the EU tariffs on the models it manufactures in China, such as the Cupra Tavascan – guilty of Seat having diluted its operating profit by 96% until September. In this period, the group recorded a 61.4% drop in its net profit, which landed at 3,405 million until September.

The picture left by the Stellantis consortium – with Peugeot, Citroën, Opel and Fiat among its leaders – is different. With an ‘anti-tariff’ shield in the form of investments of 13,000 million dollars (11,275 million euros at the exchange rate) in the US, as a backdrop, the group reduces the impact of tariffs by 500 million compared to what was initially planned for 2025 and places it at the level of 1,000 million euros. Its performance until September, however, is below that recorded a year ago, when the turnover was 6% higher than the 111.5 billion reached now.

Mercedes-Benz faces the final stretch of this turbulent 2025 with a reduction in its expected margin from 6–8% to 4–6% “due to the expected decrease in unit sales, lower than expected prices and higher than initially expected import tariffs” according to its presentation. In previous reports, the group already estimated 420 million dollars (363 million euros) the direct impact this year from Trump’s tariffs. With a 50% brake on its profit until September, of 3,878 million, after ‘puncturing’ its sales in China and North America by 18 and 10%, the German brand does not modify its forecasts.

Yes, BMW did it, precisely because of the low volumes from China and the cash impact of the tariffs with the US. While waiting to know its quarterly balance, the Munich-based manufacturer already warned the market at the beginning of last month that it will curb pre-tax profits and cut the operating margin of the automobile business – it will be between 5% and 6%, and not between 5-7%. Although its CEO, Oliver Zipse, called the tariff debate “exaggerated”, the company predicts a direct impact on its operating margin due to tariffs will be about 1.25 percentage points this year. that analysts place around 1.5 billion.